Thread by @FF_MarvinE

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Touches inside the 10 = Fantasy Gold

But which RBs in 2020 are due for regression?

I took a look at the top 30 RBs in touches inside the 10 - compared their TD rate to the league avg & their latest 2 year average (2017 & 2018)

Let's dive in!

THREAD (1/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Below are the top 30 RBs sorted by 10 zone touches (primary axis) as well as their TD rate (secondary)

Red line = wtd league avg TD rate of 30.8%

For reference:

Touches Inside 10 = receptions + rushes
TD rate (%) = TDs inside 10 ÷ Touches inside 10

(2/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

First off, of the 30 RBs above, here are the RBs that were above the league avg!

Top 5 (% point differential):

1) A Jones (+21.4)
2) Drake (+12.1)
3) D Henry (+10.9)
4) M Ingram (+9.9)
5) Gurley (+9.2)

(3/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Next, same 30 RBs, here's who finished below the league avg TD rate!

Bottom 5 (% point differential):

1) Mattison (-23.6)
2) Gore (-19.6)
3) Fournette (-19.2)
4) Chubb (-18.3)
5) M Sanders (-17.4)

*Chubb & Fournette were also top 10 in TZ touches!

(4/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Does this mean these RBs are due for regression?

Not necessarily!

Let's take a look from a different angle & compare their TD rate to their two year TD rate avg from 2017 to 2018.

Below is an overview! Let's dig deeper.

(5/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

First let's take a look at the RBs who outperformed their 2017/18 average.

Top 5 (% point differential):

1) McCoy (+16)
2) Cook (+14)
3) Elliott (+12)
4) Ingram (+11)
5) D Henry (+11)

Let's take a closer look. Any OLine data is from @fboutsiders!

(6/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - LeSean McCoy ~

Currently a free agent after playing a season with the Chiefs

In 2019, he out-touched DWill 13 to 9 in the 10-zone, despite limited snaps

2017/18 TD rate = 15.2%
2019 TD rate = 30.8%

If he signs to a team, I expect negative regression!

(7/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Dalvin Cook ~

Finally a mostly healthy season & Cook dominated!

2017/18 = 14 touches at 21.4% TD rate
2020 = 31 touches (+121%) at 35.5% TD rate

MN Rush OLine improved from 19th (2017/18) to 7th (2019) as well.

Health + Opportunity + Efficiency = 🔥🔥

(8/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Zeke Elliott ~

Zeke is #good

In 2017/18 he avg'd 23.5 TZ touches - 21.3% TD rate

In 2019 - 33 touches & 33.3% TD rate!

Also, Dallas' OLine is elite
- 5th in 2017/18 (4.64 adj line yds)
- 2nd in 2019 (4.91)

Expect slight regression but don't fade Zeke!
(9/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Mark Ingram ~

Ingram went from 2nd ranked rush OLine in 2017/18 (Saints) to the 3rd ranked OLine in 2019 (Ravens)

- 7th in TZ touches (27)
- 4th in TD rate (40.7%)

- 2017/18 TD rate = 29.9%

Fade Ingram due to efficiency + opp regression w/ Dobbins!

(10/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Derrick Henry ~

Henry is a beast!

He finished 10th in TZ touches (24), and 3rd in TD rate at 41.7%!

Also, TEN OLine improved from 18th (2017/18) to 4th in 2019.

2017/18 TD rate = 30.6%

Possible TD regression, but with volume, Henry will produce!

(11/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Same 30 RBs, let's take a look at who underperformed vs their 2017/18 average.

Bottom 5 (% point differential):

1) Fournette (-31)
2) Kamara (-18)
3) Gore (-16)
4) Chubb (-15)
5) A Jones (-14)👀

Let's dive in! Any OLine data is from @fboutsiders!

(12/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Leonard Fournette ~

341 touches in 2019 --> 3 TDs (!?)

Fournette is due for regression!

- 9th in TZ touches (26)
- 28th in TD rate among top 30 (11.5%)

2017/18 TD rate was 31 % pts higher at 42.4%

Touches might decline but efficiency should improve!

(13/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Alvin Kamara ~

Kamara dealt w/ injuries & QB change, which led to lower TD output

2017/18: 28 TZ touches/year at 33.9% TD rate

2019: 19 touches at 15.8% TD rate

Saints OLine is elite (rank):

- 2017/18: 2nd
- 2019: 1st

AK should bounce back in 2020!

(14/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Frank Gore ~

Gore is now a NYJ

Worried about him stealing RZ work from Bell?

Per 2019 results, we shouldn't be:

Gore = 11.1% TD Rate on 18 touches inside 10
Bell = 33.3% TD Rate on 12 touches

Unfortunately, Gase = unpredictable! Fade Gore for 2020!

(15/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Nick Chubb ~

Ranked 3rd in TZ touches (32) but 27th in TD rate (12.5%) among top 30!

2018 TD rate = 27.8%

CLE OLine improved from 16th in 2017/18 (4.17 ALY) to 10th (4.46) in 2019.

With upgrades to OLine, Chubb's TD rate should regress positively!

(16/19)

~ 2019 TD Rate - Aaron Jones ~

Jones is on this list?! Yes!

2017/18
- TD rate: 66.7% (!!)
- 12 TZ touches

2019
- TD rate: 52.2% (ranks 1st)
- 23 TZ touches

Positive regression? Maybe? Jones is just a great RZ RB!

With Dillon & Jamaal, workload is bigger concern!

(17/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate - Rookies ~

And just for fun - here are the rookies!

No historical data, but interestingly:

- Montgomery led the group w/ 24 touches & TD rate (25%)
- Jacobs led group with 1.69 TZ touches per game
- Mattison only had one less TZ touch than Sanders

(18/19)

~ 2019 RB TD Rate ~

Longer thread - so I appreciate you reading this through!

TDs are tough to predict - but hopefully this brings to light a few RBs that could regress in both directions.

Thanks for reading!

Data from @FantasyDataNFL

(19/19)