1/ Don't expect white smoke from Michel Barnier and David Frost when they wrap up the fourth round of Brexit talks this afternoon. Still gaps in both sides' fundamental positions – governance, level-playing field and fisheries. But this doesn't mean talks are not moving forward.
2/ Neither side expected there to be a breakthrough this week. EU sources say it's far too early for a compromise, that comes later with the added time pressure of the expiration of the transition period at the end of the year.
3/ Talks have been more useful and constructive this week. The UK and EU have moved on from simply explaining their positions to discussing more technical and minor details – not to be confused with a move toward the middle ground by either side, but actual progress.
4/ EU source tells me: 'There's not necessarily a breakthrough coming soon. It's not the case because you’re discussing more minor aspects – with a more positive tone – that either side are shifting on their fundamentals.'
5/ The fourth round of talks will act as a 'bridge' to the high-level meeting between Boris Johnson, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel later this summer. No dates have been set but could be the moment where a path to a compromise is found.
6/Brits remain steadfast that they won't capitulate on fisheries, level-playing field and governance. However, the Government has seemingly dropped its threat to walk away from talks if a deal doesn't look possible by summer – that instead is now the autumn.
7/ Angela Merkel's ambassador to the EU yesterday told the @epc_eu that he foresees a hectic six-week period this autumn where both sides strike a deal, allowing EU leaders to rubber-stamp the agreement at their European Council summit on October 15.
8/ Until then, it's all about maintaining a certain level of momentum. The Government is unlikely to walk away from talks while they appear to be moving in the right direction – even if the most difficult aspects remain unresolved.
9/ Opportunities for a compromise have emerged in the areas of fisheries, non-regression of standards and even the level-playing field, but the later is much harder to consider with the EU mandate demanding dynamic alignment in state aid.
10/ On fisheries, they have discussed how you could start a species-by-species discussion on quota shares. The UK has accepted there should be non-regression clauses, but only those that don't tie the UK to future EU rules. LPF is acceptable, but only like the EU-Canada deal.
11/ The EU's state aid demands remain a real sticking point. They were a key demand in the mandate handed to Mr Barnier before he started the negotiations, I suspect he knows the position is untenable. David Frost made a huge point of raising this in a letter to the Frenchman.
12/ The final battle, and one that hasn't really moved forward at all, is on governance. EU wants an overarching agreement. Britain has instead proposed a series of separate agreements, but not a Swiss-style deal of almost 100 bilateral deals.
13/ Both sides have seemingly accepted that governance should be left until last, with one EU source saying: 'It hasn't been discussed all that much.'
Hard to see where a compromise emerges as this is the one genuine fundamental difference. But no doubt a fudge is possible.
Hard to see where a compromise emerges as this is the one genuine fundamental difference. But no doubt a fudge is possible.
