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Latest update to English Local Authorities reporting no new Covid-19 cases in past 6 days.

Fri 22 May: 21
Tues 26 May: 33 + 32 reporting just 1 case
Fri 29 May: 39 + 44
Tues 2 June: 40 + 555
Fri 5th June: 43 + 59 (in total, 32% of 316 LAs)

The lists are coming right up.
First, LAs that have reported no new cases in past 6 days:

Adur
Arun
Broxbourne
Burnley
Chichester
City of London
Dorset
Elmbridge
Forest of Dean
Gloucester
Gosport
Harlow
Hastings
Havant
Islington
Lichfield
Lincoln
Maldon
Malvern Hills
Merton
Milton Keynes
North Devon
North Hertfordshire
North Kesteven
Rochford
Rugby
Rutland
Ryedale
Slough
South Kesteven
South Oxfordshire
Southend-on-Sea
Stroud
Surrey Heath
Tamworth
Teignbridge
Tewkesbury
Torridge
Vale of White Horse
West Devon
West Lindsey
Woking
Wyre Forest
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More from @cricketwyvern see all

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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
South West is a bit different to NW as there are just so few cases anyway. Almost certainly this means "R" is quite erratic and subject to ups and downs due to even small and localised changes in cases.
Anyway, here are the 7-day ave of new cases using the Pillar 1 tests. This has plateaued somewhat but at a very low level: 25 cases across the whole region. The plateau is largely explained by the Weston hospital with cases spilling out to Taunton. Now seems under control.
Here are total hospital patients: no indication of anything to worry about here (though given how long some patients are in hospital, this series will take a long while to get close to zero.
Read 6 tweets
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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
Given the talk about “R” increasing in some areas, I thought it might be useful to look at the “not such good news”.

Coming up are local authorities where 7-day ave for new cases from P1 tests (as of 31 May - later days likely to be updated) has increased on the previous week.
I’ve excluded a few areas where average number of cases is below per day. Changes from, say, 0 to 1 do not tell us very much.
As you can see, there isn’t very much bad news to report. Remarkably, out of 316 lower tier LAs, only 5 make the list.
Read 6 tweets
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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
We know the UK peak of deaths was on 8 April but when was the peak of infections?

@calneeagle and @AlistairHaimes have been analysing the various pieces of evidence: deaths, cases, 111 calls.

Based on these, it seems likely the infection peak was between 17th-19th March.
This means that infections started to come down just before pubs shut (20 March) & several days before full lockdown (23/24 March).
That tells us infections & deaths would have decreased even without lockdown.

It does *not* tell us whether or not lockdown helped cases/deaths to come down even faster.

Nor does it tell us whether or not locking down sooner would have caused the peak to be earlier.
Read 3 tweets

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