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The @imperialcollege paper that @nature published today - the one claiming lockdowns saved 3 million lives in Europe - is a joke too. Three big clues (not including the fact it’s from Imperial College and has Professor Pecker as a coauthor, which is dispositive by itself):
1/ They don’t disclose the infection fatality rate they’re using (it is over 1%, though - it has to be since they project 720,000 deaths in France, which has 67 million people). That’s 4x the best estimate from @cdcgov...
2/ They estimate the lockdown reduced deaths in Sweden by 90% - though, say it with me, SWEDEN DID NOT HAVE A LOCKDOWN...
3/ To make the numbers work, they theorize transmissibility falls IMMEDIATELY by as much as 80% ON THE DAY LOCKDOWN is imposed (not before, not after, that day) - but then, weirdly, starts to rise again before tapering off. So infections look like this everywhere, even Sweden...
Totally seems realistic, right? I mean, just look at @neil_ferguson’s real-world behavior. And yet now we are stuck with a new round of stories about how well lockdowns worked. Ugh.
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