Thread by @DerekCarty

Introducing THE BAT X Projections and THE BATcast Tools!!! THE BAT X is a **majorly upgraded** version of THE BAT using Statcast data!

This /THREAD explains all the cool new features/projections/stats and how to use THE BAT X to better analyze players!

Over the last two months, I studied launch angle, exit velocity, barrels, sprint speed, and 150+ other variations on Statcast data to find what was most predictive and build a Statcast-only projection system: inevitably named THE BATcast!

THE BAT X is a combination of the classic THE BAT and THE BATcast -- a revolutionary super-projection that optimally combines the best of traditional stats and Statcast to a larger degree than anything else out there*!

*As far as I know

Here's my @FanGraphs article explaining all about THE BAT X in more detail!

fantasy.fangraphs.com/introducing-th…

Find THE BAT X season-long projections at @FanGraphs

DFS projections will be added to THE BAT @RotoGrinders package

Extra detailed data and sports betting systems at @EV_Analytics

You can view all 3 projection systems (and some of the most predictive inputs) at @EV_Analytics! See which players may be over/underrated by traditional stats and who could be primed to breakout/bounceback

ex. Mookie Betts is projected by THE BAT X to return to being truly elite

Then go under the hood with THE BATcast Tools to see what's driving projections! Raw inputs, expected, & projected stats all for FREE and in one place...

Expected stats show us whose performance was deserved (or lucky) and whose wasn't.

Mookie got "lucky" in 2018 and "unlucky" in 2019. A 71-point wOBA drop should have only been 35 points.

evanalytics.com/mlb/leaderboar…

Looking at the underlying metrics, we see Mookie's 2018 and 2019 were mostly similar or only small drop-offs, explaining his expected stats and why his 2020 projection is so good.

(Graphic 1 is raw data, Graphic 2 is the same data in percentile form)

evanalytics.com/mlb/leaderboar…

(All pages have explanations and glossaries for everything -- since so much of this data is brand new -- and soon data will be color-coded to more easily see how good/bad players are in each metric)

Not only can you view several unique stats, you can also see how they correlate with current-year and next-year performance so you have plenty of context for your own player evaluations!

evanalytics.com/mlb/research/s…

This is all brand new (THE BAT "X" stands for THE BAT "eXperimental"), but I'm really excited about it and hope this helps you all pass the hours until MLB returns. If you have any questions/comments/suggestions for improvement, I'd love to hear them!

I presented on these findings and a lot more of my Statcast research at the @PitcherList #PitchCon online conference last weekend. You can re-watch the presentation here. It's definitely worth it.

Finally, while a lot of people helped either directly or indirectly, I need to offer special thanks to @tangotiger, @DolphHauldhagen, and @AndrewPerpetua, who spent a lot of time answer questions and bouncing ideas with me. Thank you all so much :)