My Authors
Read all threads
I have been receiving Qs about why overestimating asymptomatic infections might misinform policy.

1/ Most importantly it endangers finding the best strategies controlling the epidemic and it also understates other aspects that are important in transmission dynamics
2/ We need to find out where the majority of transmission is occurring & who transmits the most so that we can strategically direct our control measures, and this could also inform contact tracing and testing efforts.
3/ Some may wish to assume everyone and every environment have the same risk of transmission, but we know that it is not the case. Looking at contact tracing studies, not all activities, environments pose the same risk for transmission.
japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/0…
4/ For example, when we look at some superspreading events, they are linked to mildly symptomatic individuals attending crowded indoor events. They are not asymptomatic/presymptomatic but have aches, runny nose, sore throat, but otherwise feel well
bbc.co.uk/news/health-52…
5/ A major problem with the current literature is that many studies mislabel those individuals with mild symptoms as either presymptomatic or asymptomatic. But respiratory symptoms or fever do not cover the spectrum of COVID-19 presentations
zenodo.org/record/3888872…
6/ Besides, what we know so far is that transmission depends on many factors: person, environment, activity, duration of contact. For instance, care homes, hospitals, prisons are a very different context than brief community contact.

vox.com/science-and-he…
7/ And many studies suggest that the environment has a greater influence on transmission dynamics. I spoke to @Mikepeeljourno here about which environments pose the highest risk, with great data visuals from @jburnmurdoch
@FinancialTimes
ft.com/content/2418ff…
8/ So, in this argument, asymptomatic spread, esp if contributing very little, may have a minimal influence driving the pandemic. We may be able to avert the majority of infections by finding and isolating those with mild symptoms who otherwise feel well & avoiding indoor crowds.
9/ Ultimately we need to learn how to live with the virus in the long run. So knowing which environments/activities pose the greater risk is important. I discussed with @RoniNYTimes in this @nytimes article how to navigate your risk

nytimes.com/2020/06/06/hea…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Dr Muge Cevik

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!