Thread by @SurbhiKesar

This recent work by @hmmlowe talks about "Good news from India" - Food supply chains recovery in India by May end.

Here are a few thoughts and link to some articles that might provide a more holistic picture. 1/N

https://twitter.com/hmmlowe/status/1270412833449054208

2/N Works by @ramakumarr, vikas rawal, and some other Op-eds report how the agricultural supply has been affected.

A few links here:
thehindu.com/data/data-mark…

networkideas.org/featured-theme…

3/N Further, the fall in prices doesn't seem as a *good* sign, rather shows distress. Based on our survey @working_india, 85% farmers who were able to harves were either unable to or were able to sell produce at a *lower* price during the lockdown.
cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/covid19-analys…

https://twitter.com/hmmlowe/status/1270412838591270912

4/N Survey @working_india shows that the major reason for disruption in farmer's ability to supply was lack of transportation due to lockdown, so it's only expected that after the lockdown some supply will pick up (that doesn't guarantee that people will be able to buy it).

5/N For signs of distress in Indian agriculture and otherwise, here is the compilation of lockdown impact surveys in India that might of interest:
cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/covid19-analys…

N/N Finally, the impact on agriculture is likely to be more long-term. Even if the current crops are harvested and sold, the long term impact due to disruption in labour supply for the current season, disruption in inputs (fertilizers, seeds) will be known only with a lag.