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Legislative fun for all the family this morning... legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2020/978…

Penalties for exceeding a student number cap are to become law.
This draft SI proposes amendments to existing SIs made under made under HERA2017 (England) and THEA1998 (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland).
Explicitly applies only to 2021-22 - despite @nickhillman's fears this temporary number control would require further legislation to become a permanent feature of the sector.
However, this can be taken as evidence that the government recognises that the HE marketisation model is not up to the job (albeit in exceptional circumstances)
And a cap that had consequences other than this rather tortuous penalty on next year's fee income may not need legislation... one to bear in mind for when wave two hits.
But - enough of this. You're all wondering whether the penalties mean students of miscreant overrecruiters will actually pay less for 2021-22 study under these regs, aren't you?
The answer is yes. New and continuing students at naughty providers in all nations will pay as little as £7,862.50 for the 2021-22 academic year.
So - 2021-22 applicants. Watch out for a list of most likely popular and well known providers that will be published and "shamed" in Dec/Jan. Then apply there - Because you'll get a fee discount for your first year #perverseincentives
That's not as daft as it sounds. Better off providers could elect to take the hit next year, especially if they expected to clean up in a revitalised international student market and can grow home student numbers too.
Meanwhile providers who recruit primarily UK students and may not have massive endowments will look correspondingly less attractive in 2021. These - generally - are not the "selective" providers that random Conservative MPs gush over.
A year of underrecruitment due to low overall numbers, and then a year of low recruitment due to discounting elsewhere could finish a lot of these places off.
I'm not saying this is by deliberate design (my tinfoil hat isn't that tight) but it's certainly not been a career highlight for whoever did the impact analysis....
(Which absolutely needs to be published, along with the value of the student recruitment cap by provider. It's all a bit "think of a number" at the moment...)
Oh.

(from the explanatory note)
Oh.
This is becoming something of a pattern in sector policy at the moment.
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