Thread by @mdouganlpool

Quick summary of where we've got to today with Brexit:

1) We're currently in the middle of the post-withdrawal, status quo transition period as requested by UK: latter has left EU, but not much has changed on the ground (apart from UK being excluded from all EU decision making)

2) also at UK's request: Withdrawal Agreement contains a one-off facility to extend transition period beyond current date of expiry on 31 Dec 2020. This was meant to offer more time for trade etc negotiations. But that extension decision needs to be taken by end of this June.

3) there is currently legal debate about whether it would still be possible to extend / recreate the status quo transition even after June deadline has passed... but the general view is that such power is very unclear (at best) and simply not possible (at worst)

4) so by categorically ruling out any extension decision now, UK is basically saying: transition ends this year regardless of what will replace it in Jan 2021, ie some sort of deal or no deal at all; and regardless of fact that such major change will coincidence with virus crisis

5) even without any extension: both EU & UK say they still want deal, to replace transition when it expires & thereby minimise disruption in fields such as trade & security etc. Given past statements / behaviour of many leading Tories, we're right to be sceptical about sincerity!

6) but even if one takes them at face value: chances of reaching meaningful deal, ready to enter into force by 1 Jan 2021, appear slim, i.e. given fundamental differences between EU & UK positions + bearing in mind unprecedented nature of task at hand as well as time available

7) but can't repeat enough: there is surprisingly little difference between deal & no deal outcome in December anyway. What UK is asking for/offering= so minimalist that (for many sectors) will be fundamental change in regulatory environment regardless of what replaces transition