Thread by @bbalfour

It seems we are shifting into a new phase of this new world. @far33d and I wrote a piece on how to think about your retention strategy should shift with it (w/ contributions from @iambangaly @ElenaVerna @danhockenmaier )👇

reforge.com/blog/2020/6/2/…

There will be different strategies depending on where you sit on the headwind/tailwind spectrum.

Extreme Headwinds = habit has been broken w/ majority of your customers.

Extreme Tailwinds = habit has been accelerated w/majority of target customers and new audiences.

No matter where you are at on the spectrum, don't forget the principles of retention:

1. Retention is about building and deepening habits.
2. Retention is about usage, not revenue.
3. Retention is an output. To move retention, you need to focus on an input.

The core question for tailwind companies is who are you going to keep? How?

Your highest ROI efforts will be on your marginal audience. If you try to keep everyone, you will lose.

To identify your marginal audience...

You have to look at underlying behaviors to understand why they are there + their satisfaction. You need to identify adjacent use cases to your pre-covid core, and try to lock in that habit. A good quote from @iambangaly ...

“Is the marginal audience experiencing real value or only temporal value? You need to look at the underlying behavior that is driving engagement. If they are engaging only because of current events, but not experiencing the broader value prop, those users won't retain.”

The core question for those with extreme headwinds: How do I reactivate habits and with whom?

Habits do not get established magically. They take time and reinforcement. Expecting they will just re-appear for your users is a losing strategy.

Prior engagement will be misleading in answering this question. Ex: Eventbrite - prior usage data might lead us to concert promoters. Pre-COVID, high frequency + high value. But it's unlikely they will be the first to come back. So what to do instead...

Four questions:
1. What are your Use Cases?
2. Which Use Cases do you think will come back first?
3. For each Use Case, what is the strength of the alternative they've established?
4. How do I align my strategies?

This leads us to a 2X2.

Quick Return, Weak Alternative = Prioritize w/ reactivation campaigns.
Quick Return, Strong Alternative = Likely a lost cause. Deprioritize
Long Return, Weak Alternative = Stay top of mind.
Long Return, Strong Alternative = Develop new use case.

Core question for "inbetween" products: How do I be proactive vs reactive?

Extreme tailwind/headwind products experienced first order effects. Products in this part of the spectrum are 2nd/3rd order effects. That's because...

...your customers sit across the spectrum. You have somewhere habits have been broken, some accelerated, some in-between. That means three things...

1. Your effect is the net effect of your customers. Could be net positive or net negative.
2. That net effect may change. Just because it was net positive for the past couple months, does not mean it will stay that way.
3. Topline metrics will hide what is actually happening.

If your strategy is being informed by topline metrics, you will be reactive not proactive.

You need to:

1. Do a bottom-up analysis of your customers.
2. Categorize them across the spectrum.
3. Customize your strategy for each.

We are in the middle innings of all this. The work is just beginning. If you are interested in going deeper on this, join us in the upcoming @reforge cohort -> reforge.com/all-programs

Programs across Retention, Product Strategy, Marketing Strategy, Monetization, and more.