I’m less optimistic about the baseball negotiations than I have been in weeks. When many national and local writers were claiming the sky was falling, I was saying, “no, this is normal. This is how the process goes.” When they were saying impasse, (long thread)
I was explaining what impasse really is and why it is not impasse. No, my change to pessimism isn’t because I don’t think we will have baseball this year, it’s because I think the likelihood that the parties reach a voluntary agreement is less than 50%.
When the negotiations began many writers argued with me because I was so sure that there was no duty to bargain pay and the language of the March MOU was clear on that subject, especially in light of the fact that I had not seen a copy of the MOU.
Then, they pointed to the “smoking gun” article of the internal e-mail between MLB lawyers to prove me wrong. I said, if the language were clear, why didn’t they release the MOU language itself. I was drawing an adverse inference by the lack of production of relevant documents
along with 20 years of negotiations experience. They were claiming it was a good faith dispute about the language in the MOU.
A couple days ago, @BillShaikin published the LA Times analysis of the MOU and concluded what I had without having read it.
A couple days ago, @BillShaikin published the LA Times analysis of the MOU and concluded what I had without having read it.
“For weeks now, MLB has insisted that players know they have to negotiate over salaries for a fan-free season. Turns out nothing in a disputed agreement appears to require that.“
Then, something more important emerged, but its release is one of the reasons for my pessimism. @EvanDrellich and @Ken_Rosenthal wrote an article outlining and quoting MLB’s letter to MLBPA with its newest proposal. Tucked into that article was the admission from MLB itself.
Pat Houlihan, MLB legal counsel, similarly acknowledged in his May 22 letter to the Players Association. ‘We agree with the Association that, under the Agreement, players are not required to accept less than their full prorated salary.’’
It’s not MLB’s admission that makes me pessimistic. It’s that MLBPA has finally decided to leak. That means that the parties are no longer speaking directly. They are trying to hurt each other publicly. MLB has been doing that from the beginning.
The fake smoking gun. The other leaks. All of releases of MLB’s proposals through media proxies before presenting them to the PA. Dan Halem’s letter
The PA just couldn’t take it anymore. The public lies and bashing had to stop and the best way to stop it was to leak an internal document itself, likely for the first time. This document says MLB knows the law and knows the agreement
and everything its been doing has been a charade. “Under the Agreement, players are not required to accept less than their full prorated salary.”
So why all of the falsehoods. That’s the part I’ve been wracking my brain about. I think it comes down to the owners themselves. The simple answer is that they are terribly disappointed by the March MOU and Manfred and Halem are doing anything and
everything they can think of to get out of it. There is a possibility that their jobs are at stake over the March MOU and they are desperate. It could merely be the contents of the agreement that has some of the hardline owners upset.
But, it also could be more than that. It could be that they misrepresented or misinterpreted the MOU to the owners when they briefed on it. Now the owners want what they thought was in the MOU and Manfred, Halem, and others have been
concocting stories to make the original briefing true. That’s far less likely than just owners being upset about the contents of the deal. But, it’s possible. Considering they’ve been lying through proxies in the media about the March Agreement for months,
it’s hard to figure out a motive other than self-preservation or lying in an attempt to preserve prior lies.
We will have baseball, provided the parties reach agreement on the health protocols and associated service time issues.
We will have baseball, provided the parties reach agreement on the health protocols and associated service time issues.
A lot of star players may opt out. And the hardline owners are going to want to hold someone accountable for something, including the fact that there will not be expanded playoffs unless the parties reach agreement.
One last thing. The hardest thing for a negotiator is failing to reach a voluntary agreement. I’ve seen great leaders & negotiators struggle personally after not being able to. I’ve felt it myself. Just thinking about this negotiations has kept me from sleeping tonight. /end
