I tweeted this yesterday but should point out that, unlike the other four, Modi did take the pandemic seriously on, and imposed the world's most draconian lockdown. So what went wrong? Many things. 1/
The biggest issue, which perhaps contributed to the spread, was the panic created by giving notice of 4 hours, and the callous and cruel treatment of migrant workers, which created crowding situations that are the likely the biggest cause of spread. 2/
sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…
sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…
But also, lockdown's purpose was miscommunicated, perhaps misunderstood even by implementers. It was never to eradicate the disease. It was to slow spread, buy time to ramp up infrastructure, facilities, spread awareness. It succeeded in slowing spread. Nothing else was done. 3/
Since late March, experts in India were pleading with ICMR to use the time to test, trace, isolate. That's what east Asia (+ Kerala) did. ICMR did not. And ludriciously continues to deny that "community spread" is happening. India deliberately threw away handle on epidemic. 4/
The communication on distancing was a mixed success. But the importance of masks does not seem appreciated still. Many wear them, but many do not. It needs to be mandatory. Seems to be the single biggest factor in disease spread. 5/ pnas.org/content/early/…
And what about infrastructure? A mixed bag but in most cases, little was done and essentially no support came from centre. Hospitals are without PPE, without equipment, overwhelmed. Even (especially) in the national capital. 6/
But it's not too late. Mandate masks. Make behavioural changes via massive public awareness campaigns. Ramp up testing, tracing and isolation. Prevent crowding situations. These things should have been done and can still be done. Is GOI listening? 7/ scroll.in/article/964264…
Countries like France have eased their lockdowns but see case loads fall though most of population is probably susceptible still. Why? Probably because masks + distancing is enough to stop spread. India can stop spread via low-tech means. It requires will. /end
