Full mortality figures are now available from French stats agency INSEE up to the end of May. insee.fr/fr/statistique…
They show NO Covid increase in the death rate for the whole of May (GRAPH: yellow 2020, red 2019, blue 2018). This followed a sharp spike 11 March-30 April. 1/6
They show NO Covid increase in the death rate for the whole of May (GRAPH: yellow 2020, red 2019, blue 2018). This followed a sharp spike 11 March-30 April. 1/6
Taking March/April alone, there was excess mortality this year compared to 2019 (an average year) of 27,701. The official Fr. C-19 death toll for that period, including hosps and care homes, was 24,376. "Real” toll may have been 3,000 or so higher. Pretty accurate all same. 2/6
From 1 May-31 May, the official Covid toll in France was 4,208. But the “all deaths” rate according to INSEE was 3% LESS than in 2019 and same as 2018. So why do the Covid deaths not show as “excess mortality”? Many would, perhaps, have died of ‘flu in another year. Still….3/6
There are also graphs on the INSEE site, showing how the Covid epidemic varied enormously from region to region in France. Can't send them because my internet is acting up. 4/6
The stats also confirm a huge disparity in Covid deaths between age groups but show little difference between men and women. Deaths among under 25’s fell by 15% (fewer accidents during lockdown) Ages 25-49: down 1%. 50-64: up 12%. 65-74: up 22%. 79-84: up 29% Over 85: up 31% 5/6
Conclusion: The real C19 crisis ended in France roughly 6 weeks after lockdown (17 March). Proof that lockdown worked? Seems like it. But there has been NO 2nd spike in infections/deaths since lockdown was eased on 11 May and largely lifted on 2 June. Good news but puzzling…6/6
