.@Rabs_AA had a very crisp,scholarly conversation with distinguished scholar, Ashley J.Tellis, on the crisis in the Himalayas, India's two-front war refrain, US-Indo relations and the scaffold of US-Sino competition. Thread to follow.
On the intrusions in Ladakh, Tellis said they appeared to be within the Chinese claim line and in areas that the Chinese had patrolled. That said, Tellis said that previously the Chinese didn't entrench themselves in those places.
Regarding Chinese motivations and whether they were linked to India's August 5 decision, Tellis talked about China's vociferous response to India's gambit in Kashmir. He said that the decision made on August 5 was certainly a turning point.
He added that while India's August 5 move was a signal for Pakistan and the Kashmiris, China believed that India signalled its revanchism by reversing the status quo.
So, Tellis argued that China's incursions are meant to send a message that this territory belongs to it. Tellis attributed the timing of this standoff to the weather.
According to Tellis, China's occupation is a violation of the understanding between New Delhi and Beijing that terms these areas as disputed.
On @Rabs_AA 's question on India's constant chatter about a 2.5 front war, Tellis said that this refrain is an old one and is linked with planning, not politics. This, he said ,does not represent a shift in Indian Army's operational concepts and strategy.
On being asked about US' role as a crisis manager in Sino-Indo crises, Tellis said that India wants to delink this crisis with the Sino-US security competition, and that the US is not playing a role,and sensibly so.
He said a pronounced US intervention will not help resolve the issue without one side losing face. On China's apprehensions regarding India, Tellis said India is not a concern ,but India plus 1 is a matter of discomfiture for Beijing.
He asserted that differences between the two countries should not be managed by means that China is adopting up in the Himalayas, while questioning the benefits that China elicits from occupying places of less significance.
When @Rabs_AA brought up Tellis' 1990 concept of ugly stability and asked as to whether it has extended, Tellis answered in the affirmative. Countering China that has caused a disequilibrium is a delicate and risky affair, he stated.
The US, he felt, has not found a balance that neither draws a tough response from China nor indicates to it that the US has left space for it.
On Indo-US ties ,Tellis said that the Trump administration has treated India well, something which would continue across administrations.
The generosity shown to India,Tellis said, is due to the early staffers in the Trump administration . He reminded that this approach is at odds with choruses of America First.
He predicted that US' hostility towards China will only compel it to ramp up its support to India, even if Biden perches himself in the White House.
On China's geoeconomic juggernaut, Tellis said that Beijing has become more brazen and unapologetic in its behaviour. With China having been less hit by the pandemic, the challenges for the US will mount ,according to Tellis.
Tellis ended his talk by recommending three things for Washington: resuscitation of its economy, maintaining the lead in economic innovation, and guarding the spread of technology through robust export controls arrangements.
