In the last 30 days, COVID-19 cases per capita in the U.S. have not really declined.
But COVID-19 deaths per capita have fallen by a lot—more than 50%.
The positivity rate is down, but it doesn't explain the whole difference.
What's going on?
But COVID-19 deaths per capita have fallen by a lot—more than 50%.
The positivity rate is down, but it doesn't explain the whole difference.
What's going on?
Showing my work before I share theories:
New deaths per million 3 day rolling average
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
New cases per million 3 day rolling average
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
And the positivity rate over time
coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/indivi…
New deaths per million 3 day rolling average
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
New cases per million 3 day rolling average
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
And the positivity rate over time
coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/indivi…
Theories, in no particular order:
1. Fatality rate is declining because hospitals are getting better at treatment
2. Policy changes are focusing on protecting high-risk populations, like nursing homes. So overall IFR goes down.
3. Americans' risk portfolio is shifting...
1. Fatality rate is declining because hospitals are getting better at treatment
2. Policy changes are focusing on protecting high-risk populations, like nursing homes. So overall IFR goes down.
3. Americans' risk portfolio is shifting...
What I mean by that:
Most ppl know now that this disease is more dangerous for older ppl. It's possible, then, that young ppl might be taking more risks compared to old ppl and getting sick more. So new cases are more concentrated among a group with a lower fatality rate.
Most ppl know now that this disease is more dangerous for older ppl. It's possible, then, that young ppl might be taking more risks compared to old ppl and getting sick more. So new cases are more concentrated among a group with a lower fatality rate.
Indeed, that's exactly what's happening in Florida.
Let's end with what we know for sure.
- There is a widening gap between cases and deaths—for now.
- But deaths lag cases, sometimes by several weeks.
- Tests are up, positivity rates are down in the last month.
- Some evidence that age composition of cases is skewing younger.
- There is a widening gap between cases and deaths—for now.
- But deaths lag cases, sometimes by several weeks.
- Tests are up, positivity rates are down in the last month.
- Some evidence that age composition of cases is skewing younger.
