Thread by @bopinion

Mexico, India and Pakistan. Texas, Florida and California.

These places have seen record numbers of new cases as lockdown restrictions were eased. Should that mean a return to harsh lockdowns? trib.al/Racx587

🇵🇰Let’s look at Pakistan:

➡️One in five tested are infected
➡️6,000 new cases a day
➡️Health-system is running out of beds

The WHO has recommended officials reimpose shelter-in-place orders, but with an unorthodox twist trib.al/Racx587

Aware of the realities of a crumbling economy, the WHO has suggested Pakistan’s restrictions be applied two weeks on, two weeks off.

Many more nations will have to consider this sort of option as they balance protecting both citizens and the economy trib.al/Racx587

Each time they’re imposed, strict all-out lockdowns become more difficult, especially in badly damaged emerging economies.

So, can flexible lockdown alternatives work in practice? trib.al/Racx587

Taking another look at Pakistan, the obstacles to making even a blunt on-off lockdown are clear:

➡️Insufficient testing and contact-tracing
➡️High levels of public distrust
➡️Lack of cooperation from religious authorities trib.al/Racx587

That doesn’t mean adapted lockdowns aren’t a credible option.

Flexible lockdowns aren’t just necessary but may be desirable anywhere it’s simply impossible to wait for zero cases before reopening, much less to reach Iceland’s testing levels trib.al/Racx587

Punjab, a relative success story among India’s provinces, has imposed weekend lockdowns.

They’ve been easier to apply and run over a long period, and with less economic impact trib.al/Racx587

Lockdowns are no panacea, especially when governments fail to use the time to prepare or return to normal too swiftly.

They’re also not the only way to control the virus: Promoting cleanliness and restricting large gatherings can help trib.al/Racx587

But lockdowns, in their more malleable version, are one of the few tools in the global toolkit to tackle a pandemic that may yet drag on for months.

The best execution will require data and trust trib.al/Racx587