Thread by @TexasTribune

1/ Joe Biden has a shot of winning Texas, according to recent polls.

It’s unclear whether it’ll be worth it for Biden to spend the money to compete here.

But whatever he decides, how Biden fares in Texas could reshape the state's politics. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

2/ The Democratic Party has several objectives for 2020: win the White House and capture the Senate majority.

The party doesn’t necessarily need to win in Texas for either.

bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

3/ For the Biden campaign to put an emphasis on competing in Texas, it would be expensive.

The state is much larger than others geographically, the population is greater and there’s a larger media market.

bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

4/ Win or lose, the central question is: What kind of down-ballot damage could Republicans suffer if Biden does well?

An underperformance by Donald Trump compared to recent history has the potential to reset Texas politics for the next decade. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

5/ “It’s competitive, but I’m not predicting Biden will win ... Trump will have to spend a ton of money and come down here several times. And the Texas House is gettable for Democrats and probably two to four congressional seats.” — @jwgop
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6/ When national Democrats look at Texas, there is no greater priority than taking control of the state House.

That would give Democrats a say in drawing political districts in 2021. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

7/ An influx of newcomers to the state, growing diversity in the suburbs and an exodus of white, college-educated women from the GOP have completely scrambled age-old assumptions on voter turnout. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

8/ “The Republican base of old white guys like me is dying — literally,” said @Patterson4TX, a former Republican state Land Commissioner who is open about his unhappiness with Trump. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

9/ “As of today, I still intend to vote for Trump,” Patterson said. “After which, on my way to my truck in the parking lot, I might puke.” bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

10/ The Trump campaign is confident in its Texas outlook.

“We are doing our due diligence that we are leaving no stone unturned ahead of November, and we remain very confident that Texas will remain in Republican hands.” bit.ly/30Qq1Jb

11/11 Biden, meanwhile, has publicly insisted that he has Texas in his sights.

“I think we have a real chance to turn the state blue because of the work all of you have done,” he told the state Democratic Party’s convention earlier this month. bit.ly/30Qq1Jb