Thread by @benrileysmith

Breaking

Trump’s trade rep just said it’s “almost impossible” a UK-US deal will be approved by the US election.

Means Trump could be gone (with all of his Brexit goodwill) before an agreement is signed and sealed.

Robert Lighthizer is the man leading talks from the US end, ie the most important American beyond Trump in the negotiations.

He has been answering questions before a congressional committee this morning - a rare insight into US thinking for the talks...

To get a deal you don’t just need US + UK governments to agree terms.

Congress - which holds the power to negotiate trade deals and lends it to the administration - has to approve.

Otherwise it has no legal force and is just, effectively, a proposal.

We are now less than 150 days to the US election.

One congressman asked if a UK-US deal would be agreed and put to Congress before then.

“That would be very, very, very quick time. I think it’s unlikely that that happens,” Lighthizer said.

Lighthizer added on chances of a signed + sealed deal by the election:

“It is almost impossible unless the members [of Congress] decided they want to do something extraordinary to have it actually come before the Congress before November.”

Why is the date so important?

Because successive British governments - first Theresa May’s then Boris’s - have pinned hopes of getting a major deal on Trump’s overwhelming and public support for Brexit...

...It was the centrepiece of May and Trump’s press conference at Chequers. It was the big benefit UK officials pushed during the early alarm at Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. It has been the key element in almost any UK-US relations discussion of the last four years...

... Now there is the prospect (actually the likelihood) that a deal will not be fully secured before Mr Trump faces the voters.

If he loses - and he’s trailing massively in the polls right now - then Trump and his staunchly pro-Brexit stance will be gone from the Oval Office.

Which would - all things being equal - leave Joe Biden president and in charge of the trade deal.

Where is Biden on the deal? It’s not clear. Presumably he favours deeper trade with Britain. But...

... the Democrats have been noticeably cooler both on Brexit + the deal.

Nancy Pelosi, the most senior Dem in the House, has made a big play of saying she won’t support any deal if Brexit is undermining Northern Irish peace.

(So presumably watching what happens in EU-UK talks)

How have we got to this scramble at the end of Trump’s 1st term for a deal talked about for 4yrs?

Britain holds most of the blame, if that’s the right word. The failure to agree a Brexit course led to delay of the Brexit date.

(Formal talks banned before UK was outside the EU)

Britain was due to be out in March 2019, then June, then October (I think, I got lost around now) then we eventually left the end of Jan 2020.

That was c. 10 missed months. Then coronavirus struck, which pushed talks back another 6ish weeks.

US waited, ready to begin.

To be fair the delay was in no way the UK negotiators fault. It was an issue with Parliament / UK side for failing to get a good enough deal / Brussels side for failing to give a good enough deal*

*depending on your reading of how it all played out.

So where does that leave everything?

If Trump wins, the election timings issue becomes irrelevant

If Trump loses, it is up to Biden unless a deal is forced through before January 2021 handover
...

Two other bits

1) There is a possibility that Trump+Boris announce a face-saving ‘phase one’ (small) deal or similar.

There is the political will (Boris to show econ opportunities after Brexit, Trump to bolster deal-maker credentials before vote).

But Congress issue remains.

[Whoops forgot to finish]

2) The deadline that really scares UK team is summer 2021, when US executive hands back power for negotiating trade deals to Congress.

If no deal by then it’s big trouble as no guarantee Congress will vote to hand it back speedily to W House.

(Ends)