I used to favor the idea of framing public event conversations on controversial topics in philosophy/science/politics as “discussions” instead of “debates”...
I thought this because I thought the “discussion” framing would disarm participants and allow them to be less entrenched in their position, more charitable and more intellectually humble.
However, having watched many (and participated in a few) public event “panel discussions”, I do notice a very consequential trade-off in using the discussion framing.
When a conversation is framed as a panel discussion there is an extremely strong social norm to be agreeable and to not come off as attacking your fellow panelists.
This obviously has benefits but I find that this norm often forces the conversation to be confined to the uncontroversial portion of the topic and it forces the conversation to be superficial and borderline glib.
As an audience member, my main takeaway is often not substantive but rather is that all the panelists are very nice people who more-or-less agree on somewhat obvious things.
I learn very little and the conversation often does not force me to think more deeply or interrogate any of my beliefs. I think this undermines the purpose of having a public conservation in the first place. It’s also just boring.
Panelists usually DO have important disagreements and it would be informative to the audience to interrogate those disagreements but often times the most you get from a panelist is “the one thing I would push back on slightly is...”
Framing a public conversation as a “debate” between Position X and Position Y may seem tacky and unsophisticated but...
I think this framing liberates participants from the constraints of not wanting to seem like a jerk. It gives them social permission to make their arguments (and refute counter-arguments) as strongly as they see fit even if this comes off as abrasive or rude.
I think this is a service to the audience and it does a much better job of informing them about the premisses/assumptions/logic underlying positions than what you get when the conversation is framed as a discussion.
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Do Climate Attribution Studies Tell the Full Story?
How a cascade of selection effects bias the collective output of extreme event attribution studies. 🧵
Over the past decades, there has been an explosion in Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) studies focusing on (“triggered by”) some prior notable weather or climate extreme.
The collective output of these kinds of studies certainly gives the impression that human-caused climate change is drastically changing all kinds of weather extremes. This is probably reflected in a marked increase in Google searches on the topic.
In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. 🧵
Much like the Democratic party as a whole, scientists and their institutions (universities, research labs, professional societies, journals) are reflecting on the election results, especially what they signal in terms of public trust in science and expertise.
2023 set a record for global temperature in the instrumental era, breaching the 1.5°C 'limit' for the first time.
But global temperature itself is not very relevant to impacts. So where did 2023 come in, in terms of those more impact-relevant climate changes? 🧵
The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society released its annual "State of the Climate" report last month. Below, I highlight some of their cataloged trends, ranking them roughly from intuitive to more surprising.
First, sea level continues to ⬆️ due to land ice melting and the thermal expansion of the ocean. A sea level rise of 110 mm from 1993 to 2023 corresponds to approximately 1.4 inches per decade or 1.20 feet per century, though this rate is expected to accelerate.
California’s Massive Park Fire Would be Less Severe if We Proactively Reduced Fuels.🧵
The Park Fire shows that both a lack of active management on US Forest Service land and land management optimized for timber production are far from ideal for wildfire safety.
As of today, August 14th, the Park Fire has burned nearly 430,000 acres (672 square miles), or about 65% of the size of the state of Rhode Island. It is officially still only 40% contained and has destroyed over 600 structures.
The Park Fire currently stands as California’s fourth-largest fire since meticulous record-keeping began in the 1980s, and by itself, it has burned more area than that from all California fires in the calendar years of either 2022 or 2023.
Is climate change driving massive increases in severe thunderstorm costs and causing “The Possible Collapse of the U.S. Home Insurance System” as @nytimes reports?
There is a large and growing gap between climate science and the reporting coming from 'climate desks'…🧵
It is true that both US billion-dollar disasters and global insured disaster losses are increasing, and a large fraction of the overall increase seems to be driven by increases in losses from severe thunderstorms.
But what, specifically, does climate science say about historical and expected changes in severe thunderstorms and their associated hazards of tornadoes and hail?
When considering the risk of natural disasters like floods, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a useful framework for breaking down the risk of impacts.
This is useful for considering the underlying causes of any changes in flood disasters because, on the many-decade timescales that climate change progresses, there will not only be changes in the hazard but also changes in exposure and vulnerability.