My Authors
Read all threads
I made a chart. On average, blue states have seen steadily declining coronavirus infections since mid-April. On average, red states have... not.
People asked to see the same chart with NY, NJ, and CT broken out. If anything I'd say this makes the point more strongly: red and (non-NYC) blue states were on similar trajectories until about 3 weeks ago. Then blue states started falling while red states rose.
People are also asking for similar charts for hospitalizations and deaths. My source,, doesn't have good enough data on hospitalizations to make a meaningful chart—a number of states aren't reporting data at all and others seem spotty.
Here is a chart of deaths, which does not show a divergence between red and blue states. However, note that deaths (and more importantly official reporting/classification of deaths) can lag covid diagnoses by several weeks.
If red states began to see a big spike in covid infections ~3 weeks ago, as my previous charts suggested, we wouldn't necessarily expect to see a corresponding increase in death rates by now.
A common response to my first chart is that the recent rise in red states might reflect more testing rather than more cases. Here's a screenshot showing states with highest (right) and lowest (right) positive rates. I've marked them by 2016 vote status.…
Three of the states with the biggest recent increase in cases—AL, AZ, and SC—are also the three states with the highest rate of positive test results. FL, TX, and NC are also in the top 10. It is very hard to believe their recent increase is an artifact of increased testing.
The 15 states with the highest summer temperatures (KY, MO, TN, NC, KS, AZ, SC, AL, GA, AR, MS, OK, FL, LA, TX) all went for Trump in 2016. In this chart I've broken those states out into their own category. This suggests the recent spike is linked to high temperatures.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Timothy B. Lee

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!