Thread by @TorMrktBubble

My bear case for Condos market in Tor
1- Pre-constructions: According to Urbanation Condo rprt in May. We have unsold inventory 13K units, 92% of the 76k units under construction pre-sold. As well, the 33K units in pre-construction were 79% sold = met financing targets./1 #tore

A record 29K (revised down to 25k) new condos were scheduled for occupancy in 2020 in the GTA by Q3, more than Half of units pre-sold to Investors, so plenty of "investors" supply to hit the market this year /2

2- Resell: While the MOI was low in May, it was the highest since 2015 . Condo inventory rising rapidly since May 1st and accelerated since June 1st, in the last 2 weeks, the new listings is much higher than last year. Vaughn sitting on 15MOI(sals 2-4 week, inventory higher YOY)

3- Rental prices on the decline 3 month in row (7% drop in Tor in May), supply skyrocketed (highest on record) and demand plummeted, with students going online, Airbnb situation, and immigration drop, it will only get worse (screenshots bellow)/4

4- Airbnb Toronto inventory forecasted to rise a whopping 34%. That’s with just 25% of AirBNB exiting as hosts. according to NBC bank research. betterdwelling.com/toronto-and-va… We saw only 10% drop of Airbnb inventory so far /5

5-Immigration : Tor Sees 84% Fewer Permanent Residents In Apr, that can’t be good for condos rental market or housing market in general /6 betterdwelling.com/canadas-bigges…

6- Remote work: Over 40% of Toronto workforce could and is working from home right now, no need to rent downtown or buy extremely overvalued condos /7 bnnbloomberg.ca/video/~1970284 #torontorealestate

Urbanation found the number of new leases signed in the second half of June was down 27 per cent year-over-year, compared with a drop of 41 per cent in May. New listings increased by 74 per cent in the first half of the month cbc.ca/news/canada/co…