Many economists are warning against a return to protectionism in India, and rightly so.
However, some are using the economic theory of Comparative Advantage to make this argument, and this is misleading.
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CA is a powerful but static theory which shows that with given endowments, trade increases welfare for all countries.
But what if a country is not really happy with the welfare increase due to trade based on its current CA, and like Oliver Twist, wants more? 2/4
This is where the dynamic effect of trade comes in. If developing countries really want to achieve maximum welfare, they need to shift from labour-intensive to skill-intensive production and exports.
This means CHANGING the Comparative Advantage of these economies. 3/4
So coming back to the discussions on protectionism in India, it is not useful to debate Protectionism vs. Comparative Advantage.
Rather, we need to discuss why protectionism will hamper a change in our Comparative Advantage towards a skill-intensive industrial economy. 4/4
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The disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the lockdowns may make the work of macro policy more complicated than usual, simply by worsening the short-run tradeoff between growth and inflation.
Let me explain.
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A major factor behind the growth-inflation tradeoff is that in any economy close to full capacity, there is excess capacity in some sectors, while others face capacity constraints.
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Increasing aggregate demand in such a situation lead to more growth in the excess-capacity sectors but also more inflation in the sectors facing constraints.