Diane Swonk Profile picture
Jun 20, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is the tweet that @SteveMatthews12 highlights Fed’s commitment to talking ab inequality in a different way.
I will start with my one of my first experiences briefing the @federalreserve board. I was on a task force in Chicago. There was a revelation about the loyalty and productivity of former welfare recipients. They outperformed union workers when given targeted support.
They were such a threat to the rank and file workers that their jobs were eliminated when it came to the next round of union negotiations. It was a very sad situation and hit poor black people in Chicago particularly hard.
I told of the success and Alice Rivlin came over to follow up when I was done. She was a force of nature - I admired her, then I was privileged to call her a friend. She was Vice Chair at her Fed at the time.
There have been other cases where the quality of jobs generated have made it into the speeches of Fed Governors and Presidents. A lack of wage gains also a focus and regional Fed’s on front lines of more equitable development t. But big happened during #Fedlistens events in 2018.
Many academics wrote off the panels w community development leaders and their stories what they were saying about full employment or lack thereof. The press and the leadership of the Fed didn’t. Those were the sessions that had the most impact. Powell talked openly ab being moved
Then there was the Jackson Hole meeting where for the first time there was an all female panel presenting. Esther George who has always promoted women also raised the profile of minorities. I don’t know if the men in the room realized the shift, but I felt it to my core.
I spent a lot of time w Fed presidents as well who were actually comparing notes on how to move the needle on race and gender. The regional Fed’s have refocused much of their research to identifying inequality and leveling the playing field.
My heart warmed when the @ChicagoFed moved quickly to dismiss an advisor who posted racist posts from his blog and twitter account at @UChicago.

Fed has come a long way from the meeting in Jackson Hole where a presenter referred to women as mere breeders. Oh, I said something.
They still have a long way to go but they also have a key role to play in identifying systemic bias and leveling the debate on the economy to include more voices.
The have shown courage amidst this crisis and for that I am thankful. Special kudos to @RaphaelBostic for writing ab being a black man on the @AtlantaFed blog and @marydalyecon for her openess and need for inclusion on @sffed site.
Check out @neelkashkari and the @MinneapolisFed on their research on inequality. @NewYorkFed has also done incredible work examining debt & pandemics. The Federal Reserve is a self funding agency. No, your taxes don’t pay for it but it does have to work for the whole population.
Their tools are blunt and can benefit the rich more than the poor. Now, they not only acknowledge that, they are trying to level the playing field by forcing us to look in a mirror and see our own reflection. It isn’t pretty.

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More from @DianeSwonk

Jun 11
Inflation figures remained tame today.

However, inventories amassed ahead of tariffs and efforts to shore up cash flow by discounting ahead of the bite of tariffs helped blunt initial boost to inflation.

The PPI tomorrow will revealed whether there was a blow…
…to profit margins due to tariffs. We saw some of that in the previous PPI report.

The @NYFedResearch released a survey of firms June 4 regarding the initial effects of tariffs and the results were extremely worrisome.
The survey revealed that nearly 75% of firms had passed along the costs of tariff at least in part to other businesses & consumers; ~25% absorbed all the costs.

Cost cutting was largest for capital expenditures, which have become more expensive & are being…
Read 16 tweets
May 29
From our trade & customs
experts on court ruling on emergency tariffs known as IEEPAs

1) The government has 10 days to shut down the reciprocal and Canada, Mexico, China tariffs

2) The gov’t filed an appeal which may result in a stay of the injunction putting tariffs…
…back into effect until a decision is reached.

3) Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs remain in effect. Section 301 tariffs on China unaffected.

4) Section 301 tariffs on China remain in effect.

5) The process for requesting refunds is still unclear.
The level of tariffs is still extremely high with those that leveraged existing laws and procedures outside of IEEPA and will move up with the tariffs in
Read 18 tweets
Mar 28
As we expected, the core measures of PCE inflation, accelerated in February.

We and the Federal Reserve had a good idea that this would occur after the CPI and the PPI appeared to cool for the month of February. The components of those inflation measures that feed into the PCE suggests an acceleration in inflation.
This is the same time that other measures of inflation that the Federal Reserve watches to get a better handle on what is happening to underlying inflation measures, such as the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean measure of inflation also picked up.
Why is that so important at this point in time? The war on inflation is not won and that is prior to seeing the full effects of higher taxes via tariffs hit a whole spectrum of prices, from inputs into things the consume to the final price of many items.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 28
Key points on spending, income & inflation data for Jan.

Winter storms had big effect on mobility in the South - coldest Jan since 1988. That took a toll on foot traffic in stores & on vehicle dealer lots. Consumer spending dropped 0.5% after adjusting for inflation but was revise up in 4Q
Weakness in goods; largest drop after adhesion for inflaion since July 2021, height of Delta Wave of COVID.

Services slowed to crawl.

Disposable incomes surged - up 0.6%. A bump in Social Security payment accounted for 0.2% of that gain. Large jump in dividend income.
However, wages & salaries only increase 0.1% in Jan. Gets to inequality & concentration of spending in higher income & older baby boomer households.

Saving rate jumped to 4.5%, after plummeting at year end 2024. That is highest since June 2024.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 18, 2024
All eyes on the Federal Reserve.

Markets widely expect a quarter point cut today but debate will be heated. A dissent can’t be ruled out.

The Fed has noted that it would look at a spectrum of data on growth, inflation, the labor market, financial conditions and inflation expectations all into account when making its decision on rate cuts.
Growth, inflation and the labor market have surprised to the upside since November. Inflation expectations appear to be less anchored and more unmoored than hoped, while financial conditions have eased.

Some asset prices look downright frothy.
That is not exactly where the Fed wanted to be right now.

Chairman Jay Powell was almost jubilant a year ago, given the remarkable progress made on inflation in the back half of 2023. That proved premature. He will not repeat the mistake at this meeting. (Fool me once…)
Read 11 tweets
Dec 4, 2024
ADP payroll report grew a less than expected 146K in November, after downward revisions to October. However, the ADP data is an independent data series on the labor market. Payrolls grew a record 183K in October vs the 12K in the @BLS estimate for the month.
The data no longer acts as a forecast for the @BLS survey but is an important independent look at the labor market. It was not as suppressed by storms & strikes as we saw in the @BLS survey, which means it is likely understating the rebound in the official data.
Gains were driven by large firms. Small businesses are getting squeezed. This is consistent with recent recession to the census data that suggests we created more than 800K fewer jobs last year, while recent revisions to this year’s data suggest additional downward revisions.
Read 8 tweets

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