Diane Swonk Profile picture
Jun 20, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is the tweet that @SteveMatthews12 highlights Fed’s commitment to talking ab inequality in a different way.
I will start with my one of my first experiences briefing the @federalreserve board. I was on a task force in Chicago. There was a revelation about the loyalty and productivity of former welfare recipients. They outperformed union workers when given targeted support.
They were such a threat to the rank and file workers that their jobs were eliminated when it came to the next round of union negotiations. It was a very sad situation and hit poor black people in Chicago particularly hard.
I told of the success and Alice Rivlin came over to follow up when I was done. She was a force of nature - I admired her, then I was privileged to call her a friend. She was Vice Chair at her Fed at the time.
There have been other cases where the quality of jobs generated have made it into the speeches of Fed Governors and Presidents. A lack of wage gains also a focus and regional Fed’s on front lines of more equitable development t. But big happened during #Fedlistens events in 2018.
Many academics wrote off the panels w community development leaders and their stories what they were saying about full employment or lack thereof. The press and the leadership of the Fed didn’t. Those were the sessions that had the most impact. Powell talked openly ab being moved
Then there was the Jackson Hole meeting where for the first time there was an all female panel presenting. Esther George who has always promoted women also raised the profile of minorities. I don’t know if the men in the room realized the shift, but I felt it to my core.
I spent a lot of time w Fed presidents as well who were actually comparing notes on how to move the needle on race and gender. The regional Fed’s have refocused much of their research to identifying inequality and leveling the playing field.
My heart warmed when the @ChicagoFed moved quickly to dismiss an advisor who posted racist posts from his blog and twitter account at @UChicago.

Fed has come a long way from the meeting in Jackson Hole where a presenter referred to women as mere breeders. Oh, I said something.
They still have a long way to go but they also have a key role to play in identifying systemic bias and leveling the debate on the economy to include more voices.
The have shown courage amidst this crisis and for that I am thankful. Special kudos to @RaphaelBostic for writing ab being a black man on the @AtlantaFed blog and @marydalyecon for her openess and need for inclusion on @sffed site.
Check out @neelkashkari and the @MinneapolisFed on their research on inequality. @NewYorkFed has also done incredible work examining debt & pandemics. The Federal Reserve is a self funding agency. No, your taxes don’t pay for it but it does have to work for the whole population.
Their tools are blunt and can benefit the rich more than the poor. Now, they not only acknowledge that, they are trying to level the playing field by forcing us to look in a mirror and see our own reflection. It isn’t pretty.

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More from @DianeSwonk

Jul 2
ADP payrolls dip 33K.

The payroll data by ADP was revised several years ago. It no longer is meant to predict the official payroll survey that we see at the national level but does add valuable color to our read of the labor market.

Hiring freezes and…
…are taking a toll, esp on new entrants into the labor force are struggling.

Hiring freezes are taking a toll even though layoffs remain low.

The losses were largest in Professional business services, health and education.

Funding freezes are playing a role.
Heathcare has been the largest driver of employment gains for some time.

This is a sector hit by funding freezes & loss of immigrant labor.

Manufacturing added jobs. There was a rush to related to pause on most prohibitive tariffs against
China. Unclear how long can persist
Read 6 tweets
Jul 2
Tariffs are playing havoc with economic behaviors & data, triggering the mother of all front-running cycles.

- Imports soared in the first quarter, as companies scrambled to get ahead of tariffs, which when combined with weak exports, caused the largest jump..
..in the trade deficit on record.

In April, we saw a massive pull-back and plunge in the trade deficit - largest on record.

BUT, pause in most prohibitive of tariffs on China triggered another scramble to get goods into the country.

Much like the pandemic…
The pause disrupted shipping and triggered a surge in shipping costs as ships were redeployed to get goods from China back on the water and in the door prior to the risk of another surge in tariffs.

Those shifts boosted some survey data on manufacturing & orders
Read 11 tweets
Jun 27
The personal income and expenditures report was gut wrenching.

Income tumbled along with spending as the surge in retirees rushing to to get to tap Social Security payments last month reversed. That pushed overall incomes down 0.7% and more than reversed the gains of April.
The level of personal income after adjusting for inflation dropped to its lowest level since December, before the start of the year.

The loss in incomes absent the distortions created by social security payments set overall incomes back to March levels. That is still weak.
Spending contracted a less dramatic 0.3% as we suffered a payback in vehicle sales, following a front- running of tariffs by consumers in late March and early April.

However, losses were broad based and worrisome given downward revisions to consumer spending in 2Q.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 22
A $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil is equivalent to about 25 cents per gallon of gas.

The CPI effect is about 0.2% but there are secondary effects if oil price remain elevated on the supply chain.

Those increases are in addition to a surge in shipping…
…costs related to on/off tariff decisions.

Shipping costs on Baltic 12 routed jumped at fastest two-day pace on record June 2-3, in a move reminiscent of the pandemic.

Same time break evens in oil for new drilling are higher due to tariffs. That is limiting new drilling.
The secondary effects of an oil shock tend to be jagged and take 6-8 months to play out per research by the Fed.

Tariffs and oil price increases tend to amplify each other.

A dollar appreciation could mitigate effects on US inflation but export more abroad
Read 11 tweets
Jun 11
Inflation figures remained tame today.

However, inventories amassed ahead of tariffs and efforts to shore up cash flow by discounting ahead of the bite of tariffs helped blunt initial boost to inflation.

The PPI tomorrow will revealed whether there was a blow…
…to profit margins due to tariffs. We saw some of that in the previous PPI report.

The @NYFedResearch released a survey of firms June 4 regarding the initial effects of tariffs and the results were extremely worrisome.
The survey revealed that nearly 75% of firms had passed along the costs of tariff at least in part to other businesses & consumers; ~25% absorbed all the costs.

Cost cutting was largest for capital expenditures, which have become more expensive & are being…
Read 16 tweets
May 29
From our trade & customs
experts on court ruling on emergency tariffs known as IEEPAs

1) The government has 10 days to shut down the reciprocal and Canada, Mexico, China tariffs

2) The gov’t filed an appeal which may result in a stay of the injunction putting tariffs…
…back into effect until a decision is reached.

3) Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs remain in effect. Section 301 tariffs on China unaffected.

4) Section 301 tariffs on China remain in effect.

5) The process for requesting refunds is still unclear.
The level of tariffs is still extremely high with those that leveraged existing laws and procedures outside of IEEPA and will move up with the tariffs in
Read 18 tweets

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