I will start with my one of my first experiences briefing the @federalreserve board. I was on a task force in Chicago. There was a revelation about the loyalty and productivity of former welfare recipients. They outperformed union workers when given targeted support.
They were such a threat to the rank and file workers that their jobs were eliminated when it came to the next round of union negotiations. It was a very sad situation and hit poor black people in Chicago particularly hard.
I told of the success and Alice Rivlin came over to follow up when I was done. She was a force of nature - I admired her, then I was privileged to call her a friend. She was Vice Chair at her Fed at the time.
There have been other cases where the quality of jobs generated have made it into the speeches of Fed Governors and Presidents. A lack of wage gains also a focus and regional Fed’s on front lines of more equitable development t. But big happened during #Fedlistens events in 2018.
Many academics wrote off the panels w community development leaders and their stories what they were saying about full employment or lack thereof. The press and the leadership of the Fed didn’t. Those were the sessions that had the most impact. Powell talked openly ab being moved
Then there was the Jackson Hole meeting where for the first time there was an all female panel presenting. Esther George who has always promoted women also raised the profile of minorities. I don’t know if the men in the room realized the shift, but I felt it to my core.
I spent a lot of time w Fed presidents as well who were actually comparing notes on how to move the needle on race and gender. The regional Fed’s have refocused much of their research to identifying inequality and leveling the playing field.
My heart warmed when the @ChicagoFed moved quickly to dismiss an advisor who posted racist posts from his blog and twitter account at @UChicago.
Fed has come a long way from the meeting in Jackson Hole where a presenter referred to women as mere breeders. Oh, I said something.
They still have a long way to go but they also have a key role to play in identifying systemic bias and leveling the debate on the economy to include more voices.
The have shown courage amidst this crisis and for that I am thankful. Special kudos to @RaphaelBostic for writing ab being a black man on the @AtlantaFed blog and @marydalyecon for her openess and need for inclusion on @sffed site.
Check out @neelkashkari and the @MinneapolisFed on their research on inequality. @NewYorkFed has also done incredible work examining debt & pandemics. The Federal Reserve is a self funding agency. No, your taxes don’t pay for it but it does have to work for the whole population.
Their tools are blunt and can benefit the rich more than the poor. Now, they not only acknowledge that, they are trying to level the playing field by forcing us to look in a mirror and see our own reflection. It isn’t pretty.
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Data disruptions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is down ~ 30% on staffing incl leadership roles. That has left them scrambled post shutdown to try to do more w/less, inc key regional survey offices closed. That has meant that tough decisions on filling gaps in the data had to be made.
The fallback is that historic prices are carried forward, which means if inflation is moving more rapidly in one direction or another, the data are understating those moves. This is especially true for the CPI.
The decisions are not political in nature but are consequential as staffing cuts…
…where made without any kind of benefit cost analysis. (Understatement.)
The result will distort our view and that of the Federal Reserve’s, notably on inflation for some time to come.
Why do we care? Because the credibility in our data is being questioned, which undermines the basic..
Why do economists care about inequality in incomes and wealth?
1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they spend….
…when more spending is in the hands of higher income households, overall spending is less than it would otherwise be.
2) Social and economic mobility drop, which leaves large swaths of untapped talent that have less access to resources to develop their talent.
3) Asset bubbles become more common, which threatens financial stability. Affluent households have more savings and can afford to take on riskier bets than low-and middle-income households. That tends to increase what is known as the reach for yield & foment asset price bubbles.🫧
Powell corralled the cats & achieved an unusual amount of unity amidst a high level of uncertainty about the outlook.
The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
Powell referred to the move down by a quarter point as a “risk management cut.”
One silent dissent was in the what is known as the dot plot. There was one person at the meeting who did not want any cut today.
Presidents do not usually vote in a vacuum.
That means that even if that was a voting member, they didn’t have enough support within in the meeting to cast a dissenting.
The median for the rest of the year is for two more cuts, but a lot of push back within the Fed on that; 7 of 19 participants penciled in 1 cut or less
That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.
Those out on vacation in August dropped to second lowest on record as low and middle income households curbed discretionary spending. Travel over labor day hit all time high.
Air fares snd hotel rooms regained ground lost earlier in the year.
Vehicles and vehicle repairs moving up with other big ticket goods prices. That will spillover into the cost of insurance along with last year’s hurricanes and fires at start of year.
Good news. Inflation comes in as expected quit more drag from shelter costs. Rents are cooling and hotel room rates continued to plummet in July.
The sticking point is the Core CPI, which was up 0.3% but rounded to a 3.1% gain from a year ago.
That is the hottest pace for the core, which excludes the volatile food and energy components.
Why does the Fed care so much about the core. It included more things it can affect and it tends to be the best indicator of where momentum is headed, which is up for prices.
Durable goods prices increased at their fastest year over year pace since November 2022 after placing a drag on inflation much of last year and the start of this year.
The super core services, which strips out shelter and utilities, soared 0.5%, it fastest pace since January.
Employment stalls out in July with huge downward revisions to previous months.
We only saw 85K jobs per month year to date, down from 168K average in 2024.
The three legs of job gains since mid 2023 - state & local, healthcare & social assistance & leisure & hospitality -….
…are down to one. Health care & social assistance, buoyed by aging demographics as opposed to a strong economy accounted for all of the job gains in July.
That is not a stable place to be.
Average hourly earnings jumped 0.3% and accelerated to 3.9%.
There was a surge in retail wages, which jumped 1.2% in July alone, its fastest pace emerging from the pandemic in July 2020.
A rise minimum wages amplified that “unseasonal jump” in retail wages. Brace for some give back in August.