Diane Swonk Profile picture
Jun 20, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is the tweet that @SteveMatthews12 highlights Fed’s commitment to talking ab inequality in a different way.
I will start with my one of my first experiences briefing the @federalreserve board. I was on a task force in Chicago. There was a revelation about the loyalty and productivity of former welfare recipients. They outperformed union workers when given targeted support.
They were such a threat to the rank and file workers that their jobs were eliminated when it came to the next round of union negotiations. It was a very sad situation and hit poor black people in Chicago particularly hard.
I told of the success and Alice Rivlin came over to follow up when I was done. She was a force of nature - I admired her, then I was privileged to call her a friend. She was Vice Chair at her Fed at the time.
There have been other cases where the quality of jobs generated have made it into the speeches of Fed Governors and Presidents. A lack of wage gains also a focus and regional Fed’s on front lines of more equitable development t. But big happened during #Fedlistens events in 2018.
Many academics wrote off the panels w community development leaders and their stories what they were saying about full employment or lack thereof. The press and the leadership of the Fed didn’t. Those were the sessions that had the most impact. Powell talked openly ab being moved
Then there was the Jackson Hole meeting where for the first time there was an all female panel presenting. Esther George who has always promoted women also raised the profile of minorities. I don’t know if the men in the room realized the shift, but I felt it to my core.
I spent a lot of time w Fed presidents as well who were actually comparing notes on how to move the needle on race and gender. The regional Fed’s have refocused much of their research to identifying inequality and leveling the playing field.
My heart warmed when the @ChicagoFed moved quickly to dismiss an advisor who posted racist posts from his blog and twitter account at @UChicago.

Fed has come a long way from the meeting in Jackson Hole where a presenter referred to women as mere breeders. Oh, I said something.
They still have a long way to go but they also have a key role to play in identifying systemic bias and leveling the debate on the economy to include more voices.
The have shown courage amidst this crisis and for that I am thankful. Special kudos to @RaphaelBostic for writing ab being a black man on the @AtlantaFed blog and @marydalyecon for her openess and need for inclusion on @sffed site.
Check out @neelkashkari and the @MinneapolisFed on their research on inequality. @NewYorkFed has also done incredible work examining debt & pandemics. The Federal Reserve is a self funding agency. No, your taxes don’t pay for it but it does have to work for the whole population.
Their tools are blunt and can benefit the rich more than the poor. Now, they not only acknowledge that, they are trying to level the playing field by forcing us to look in a mirror and see our own reflection. It isn’t pretty.

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More from @DianeSwonk

Apr 11
One of the difficult aspects of inflation has been the game of wack a mole.

Prices have generally trended down until recently.

Much of the improvement we have seen has been aided but not due entirely to a healing of supply chains that got scrambled in the wake…
…of reopening. The Federal Reserve welcomed those shifts as they helped to take the steam off inflation in a fairly dramatic way in 2023.

Overall inflation measures slipped below the pace of wage increase and some started to regain purchasing power lost to inflation.
Still, catching up on ground lost and the economics of the lingering effect of high price levels was no cake walk. (Understatement.)

Things that had been cooling most rapidly were in the goods sector. That includes prices at the gas pump, single most recognized aspect…
Read 20 tweets
Mar 21
After reading a lot of “hot takes” on inflation, I realized a few things are worth underscoring.

A Top 10 List

1) The Fed made no commitment to cut rates at today’s meeting; they just didn’t change expectations that rate cuts are likely this year.

2) The median forecast is for three cuts BUT the number of people expecting to cut two or less rose.
3) The Fed is managing risks. It is balancing the risk of cutting rates prematurely and
triggering a more persistent bout of inflation against the risk of holding rates too high for too long and causing an unnecessary recession. Policy shifts take time to play out, and can be nonlinear in their impact.

4) @federalreserve Chair Powell said every meeting is live. Nothing is set in stone in terms of the course of policy.
5) The Fed would not hesitate to hike again if inflation reaccelerated in a more persistent way.

6) An acceleration in employment alone is not enough to make the Fed resume rate hikes; it could be accompanied by a rise in productivity growth, which would alleviate the upward pressure on prices. An acceleration in the economy without productivity growth is a different story.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 18
Inflation, uncertainty and the Federal Reserve. I spend a lot of time looking at inflation both with my team, a diverse set of economists and anyone & everyone I talk to professionally & personally in every walk of life.

The data on the economy are but a flashlight on a path in what is becoming an increasingly dense forest.
The pandemic shifted and accelerated cyclical and structural in nature. Those triggered a massive collision between demand and supply, which proved combustible.

One of the most interesting areas of inflation that illustrates the complexity of the forces at work, is the massive run-up in insurance costs.
Both vehicle & homeowners insurance have surged over the last year. Some places have lost access by providers all together. The reasons are a complex set of factors.

Take homeowner’s insurance.

Home values and the cost of construction soared during the pandemic and even though we have seen costs abate since the onset of the pandemic, they are still very expensive.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 8
Payroll employment came in at 275,000 jobs in February, after a downwardly revised 229,000 in January. The three-month and six-month moving averages moved up in recent months, after slowing during work stoppages due to strikes over the summer and into the early Fall of 2023. (E.g., The downward revisions to January did not shift the narrative that payroll employment looks like it is picking up again.)
Gains were dominated by the big 3 - healthcare and social services, leisure & hospitality and state and local government hires, outside of education. All three have room to run. Healthcare and social services are chasing a moving target due to aging demographics and the drop in quit rates; more workers are utilizing their benefits than when churn was skyrocketing.
Leisure & hospitality buoyed by surge in those on vacation and traveling baby boomer retirees. State and local government coffers in good shape and finally able to fill vacant positions, due in large part to retirements and quits ealier jn the cycle. Job openings for state and local gov’t jobs excluding education remain extremely elevated.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 11
Big week for data: CPI and retail sales come out, while we get more Fed speakers talking about the outlook and the patience surrounding rate cuts.

The CPI is expected to further cool on the heels of lower prices at the gas pump and a moderation in food inflation. Dairy products actually dropped from a year ago last month. Milk prices are second to prices at the gas pump when it comes to shaping people’s inflation expectations.
Overall inflation as measured by the CPI is expected to slip below 3% in January, its lowest annual pace since March 2021, which marked the onset of the pandemic-induced inflation, although the pace of inflation was still close to 2% than 3% back then.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better predictor of inflation, is expected to cool to 3.7% on an annual basis in January from 3.9% in December.

The Fed will be watching closely for a continued moderation in goods prices outside of gasoline. Inventories on vehicle lots have risen and with those increases, so have incentives. The hard reality for buyers is that financing rates approached the highs hit in the fall during the month after retreating a bit in December.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
Have two straight weeks of meetings with economist and policy experts across countries. Taking a breather after my first week of meetings. Here is some issues that bubbled to the top.

1) Is the US economy really as good as it appears - what can and can’t be trusted in our economic models?

Households debt: consumer’s demised has been greatly exaggerated. Be careful with extrapolating household debt & delinquency data. Record delinquencies every month for subprime vehicle borrowers last year did not equate to defaults or a vicious cycle for lenders and borrowers. Why? Most who went delinquent kept their jobs and were able to service debt and avoid a default, while access to credit for lowest credit score borrowers dried up.

Wealth effects in stock market are more disperse, with record 58% of households owning stock according to Federal Reserve in 2022 vs 53% in 2019.

However, much more housing market wealth has gone to baby boomers who are aging in place. That is a big issue for younger millennials who are now need help of parents to achieve home ownership more than previous generations.

Moral of story: We are not like to see the consumer collapse short of a jump in unemployment.
2) How well are margins in private companies holding up relative to public companies? How big of a paywall or cliff will we hit in private sector debt as it resets at higher rates than earlier in the cycle. Not a lot of transparency here. Public corporate debt has longer maturities and not facing as many hurdles.
3) The drop in energy prices has been stunning, especially for those who study oil prices, given the geopolitical tensions we face. Played key role in reducing global inflation. However, lots of black swan events from war in Ukraine to war in Middle East, that could still boost oil prices in a black swan event.
Read 9 tweets

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