I will start with my one of my first experiences briefing the @federalreserve board. I was on a task force in Chicago. There was a revelation about the loyalty and productivity of former welfare recipients. They outperformed union workers when given targeted support.
They were such a threat to the rank and file workers that their jobs were eliminated when it came to the next round of union negotiations. It was a very sad situation and hit poor black people in Chicago particularly hard.
I told of the success and Alice Rivlin came over to follow up when I was done. She was a force of nature - I admired her, then I was privileged to call her a friend. She was Vice Chair at her Fed at the time.
There have been other cases where the quality of jobs generated have made it into the speeches of Fed Governors and Presidents. A lack of wage gains also a focus and regional Fed’s on front lines of more equitable development t. But big happened during #Fedlistens events in 2018.
Many academics wrote off the panels w community development leaders and their stories what they were saying about full employment or lack thereof. The press and the leadership of the Fed didn’t. Those were the sessions that had the most impact. Powell talked openly ab being moved
Then there was the Jackson Hole meeting where for the first time there was an all female panel presenting. Esther George who has always promoted women also raised the profile of minorities. I don’t know if the men in the room realized the shift, but I felt it to my core.
I spent a lot of time w Fed presidents as well who were actually comparing notes on how to move the needle on race and gender. The regional Fed’s have refocused much of their research to identifying inequality and leveling the playing field.
My heart warmed when the @ChicagoFed moved quickly to dismiss an advisor who posted racist posts from his blog and twitter account at @UChicago.
Fed has come a long way from the meeting in Jackson Hole where a presenter referred to women as mere breeders. Oh, I said something.
They still have a long way to go but they also have a key role to play in identifying systemic bias and leveling the debate on the economy to include more voices.
The have shown courage amidst this crisis and for that I am thankful. Special kudos to @RaphaelBostic for writing ab being a black man on the @AtlantaFed blog and @marydalyecon for her openess and need for inclusion on @sffed site.
Check out @neelkashkari and the @MinneapolisFed on their research on inequality. @NewYorkFed has also done incredible work examining debt & pandemics. The Federal Reserve is a self funding agency. No, your taxes don’t pay for it but it does have to work for the whole population.
Their tools are blunt and can benefit the rich more than the poor. Now, they not only acknowledge that, they are trying to level the playing field by forcing us to look in a mirror and see our own reflection. It isn’t pretty.
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Markets widely expect a quarter point cut today but debate will be heated. A dissent can’t be ruled out.
The Fed has noted that it would look at a spectrum of data on growth, inflation, the labor market, financial conditions and inflation expectations all into account when making its decision on rate cuts.
Growth, inflation and the labor market have surprised to the upside since November. Inflation expectations appear to be less anchored and more unmoored than hoped, while financial conditions have eased.
Some asset prices look downright frothy.
That is not exactly where the Fed wanted to be right now.
Chairman Jay Powell was almost jubilant a year ago, given the remarkable progress made on inflation in the back half of 2023. That proved premature. He will not repeat the mistake at this meeting. (Fool me once…)
ADP payroll report grew a less than expected 146K in November, after downward revisions to October. However, the ADP data is an independent data series on the labor market. Payrolls grew a record 183K in October vs the 12K in the @BLS estimate for the month.
The data no longer acts as a forecast for the @BLS survey but is an important independent look at the labor market. It was not as suppressed by storms & strikes as we saw in the @BLS survey, which means it is likely understating the rebound in the official data.
Gains were driven by large firms. Small businesses are getting squeezed. This is consistent with recent recession to the census data that suggests we created more than 800K fewer jobs last year, while recent revisions to this year’s data suggest additional downward revisions.
One of the most missed stories in the downward revision to payroll employment, regardless how big it ends up, it reinforces evident that productivity growth is improving and seems to be sustaining above pre-pandemic trend. That is really important for soft landing scenario.
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan attempted to preemptively stop inflation in 1994-95. He doubled fed funds rate in a year. The economy stalled out in first half of 1995 and he held rates higher for longer except for a flinch an quarter point cut in July 1995.
His colleagues convinced him to shift tactics. One issue that came to light was that after lagging, productivity growth had accelerated, while foreign competition was intensifying. Those shifts were doing the heavy lifting for the Fed and enable it to embark on what was later known as the “growth experiment”
Next Friday the employment report for July will be released and there is a very high probability that the unemployment rate triggers what is known as the “Sahm Rule,” a recession indicator named for @Claudia_Sahm.
She herself has warned that it might not be signaling what it did in the past, given the unique nature of the post pandemic economy. Rules, much like Olympic records, are meant to be broken.
Much of the rise in unemployment that we have seen thus far in the Federal Reserve’s credit tightening cycle has been due to a rise in the number of people participating in the labor force and seeking work, as opposed to a surge in layoffs.
Still, not all is coming up roses. Those who have lost a job are finding it harder and taking more time to replace it, while the unemployment rate among new college grads has risen more rapidly than that for overall college grads. Unemployment claims have also moved up, exacerbated by Hurricane Beryl and its devastation in Texas the week of the survey for the July employment report.
Heavy flooding and electrical outages destroyed property and left well over a million without power around Houston during a brutal heat wave. That meant left businesses idled and many unable to get to work due to inclement weather the survey week.
Yet, there is a fear that is not entirely unwarranted that the economy could suffer undo pain in the months to come.
Lots of back and forth on inflation. A lot can be true all at once. First, let’s back up and acknowledge that the CPI & wage measures are aggregate measures - they represent everyone but no one individual. Hence, the importance of having the break down that..
..stats agencies, Federal Reserve system and independent groups doing by income strata.
Inflaion has cooled but the level of prices remains elevated & people feel as though they are losing ground. Low income hh struggling most.
This was after the moment low wage workers had in the sun when their wages leveled up during the initial phases of pandemic. Their wages have slowed considerably. And the childcare crisis is compounding the desperation as working as working parents are increasingly…
🥶The ice is thinning…red flags are emerging for the US economy.
A 🧵”Sahm Rule” & how elusive soft landings truly can be. What is often touted as a victory, the 1994-95 tighten and easing cycle was more about luck than skill.
The employment report showed we added 206K jobs after downward revisions to May. More than a third of those gains were in state and local hiring; gains were less broad based than I would like and we tend to get a lot of layoffs in June and July in the public sector, which makes for easy seasonal adjustment of the data.
The household survey is less encouraging. The unemployment rate continued to edge higher along with the ranks of the long term unemployed. Many within the Fed have relied more on the establishment survey, or payroll data, as it is larger with a better response rate than the households survey.