Network of beliefs helps you do this:
1. When A is true, B will be true.
2. When B is true, C is true 75% of the time.
3. A is true, so C is most likely true.
But hypothesis testing can only tell you C is true.
That’s rarely sustainable nor practical (I’m referring to product development here).
Even though that defies all logic. How can a leader with LESS data/research/rigor make better decisions?
It’s simply called “learning”, and we do it naturally.
Shooting from the hip with a dictatorial leader works. Shooting from the hip while coordinating with others: doesn’t work.
Shared understanding is hard!
Tools like @RoamResearch or @CausalHQ try to make tools that let us vocalize and share our belief system with others.
We need ways of thinking and ways of working to go along with it.