Thread by @abishekbagchi

@ArunudoyB Entire thread @ArunudoyB da. You captured excellently the different aspects about constant swing of people pulse

I will add about the 4 different mood swings in last 1 year

-Post NRC Results (11 Lakh Bengali Hindu exclusion) - TMC Gained. Reflected in 3 Assembly By poll results

@ArunudoyB -CAA passed & chαos across WB including train buπning - BJP gained hugely

- WB Govt hiding Covid deαths in first 3 weeks & finally admitting- BJP gained again

- Post Amphan - Centre giving only 1000 Crores while Central team admitted dαmage of 80K crores - TMC started gaining

@ArunudoyB In LS 2019, BJP's vote share gain was almost entirely due to switching of αnti-TMC votes from Left front to BJP.

While TMC had actually increased its vote share by 3.5% , Left Front's vote had collapsed from 30% to 7.5%

hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elec…

@ArunudoyB LF leaning vernacular newspaper reports that 7 lakh folks are getting fed by CPM in WB post Covid crisis

Places to be noted are Raniganj in Bardhhaman district & Bankura district as a whole.

In both the places, BJP had won in LS 2019 by big margin

thesambadxpress.in/left-front-com…

@ArunudoyB Mainstream vernacular media reports another area of CPM activity.

Ashoknagar in North 24 Parganas. Once a communist bastion, it has turned into a BJP fortress now with minimal presence of TMC

Left is selectively tαrgeting areas to get back its votes

anandabazar.com/state/leftists…

@ArunudoyB The above reports dont mean that CPM will sweep WB assembly in 2021. Far from it

But what it means, even if LEFT gets back 20-30% of its votes from BJP, αnti-TMC votes will split giving advantage to TMC in 30+ constituencies (4-5 LS constituencies where CPM became active)

@ArunudoyB The 1st Comprehensive Opinion Poll by CNX-ABP post Amphan captures the mood.

BJP voteshare decreasing & Left Front's increasing giving TMC a clear lead of 50+ seats

Yes, assembly election is still a year away & things can change

anandabazar.com/state/tmc-will…

@ArunudoyB WB BJP is aware of these. 3 things happening in parallel

- BJP leaders are appearing in press saying we are not allowed to give relief

- CPM running community kitchens & relief without any press coverage

- BJP SM Youtuber promoting CPM leaders & their community kitchen

@ArunudoyB And yes, contrary to popular opinion of a bitter fight between TMC-BJP, there are several instances of actually the opposite.

A short thread on factually correct things

https://twitter.com/IamSourav_b/status/1274533851004534787

@ArunudoyB 1 indicator which shows WB felt about Centre's indifference post Covid-Amphan

WB RF -1.77 lakh folks donated wbserf.wb.gov.in/wbserf/default…

Compare

MH CMRF got 361 cr from 1.3 lakh (avg: 27k)
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/rs…

Assam got 109 Cr from 50k folks (avg: 21k) archive.is/CMQHm

@ArunudoyB Some recent state level development. You may be interested

@IamSourav_b @gupta_skanda @PradzWorLd @dikgaj @sarkar_swati