Thread by @JoshuaADouglas

KENTUCKY PRIMARY ELECTION THREAD:

There have been so many national "takes" about the "debacle" that will surely occur on Tuesday in KY. How about we use real numbers and real facts: a thread 1/

Jefferson County (Louisville) is largest county, with over 600,000 registered voters. It has large percentage of state's African-American voters.

So far, about 222,000 voters have either requested a mail-in ballot or have voted early. 2/

Louisville's biggest turnout in primary in recent years was 08: 192,630.

If we assume 50% turnout this year (high), that's about 300,000 voters. That means state would see about 75k voters on Tues.

There will be one polling location--split between 18 legis. districts. 3/

Voters can still vote "early" on Mon. at one of two different places. Thus, at largest estimate, we are probably looking at maybe 50k voters on Tuesday? But probably less.

Now...that's STILL TOO MANY for one location. But it's just wrong to say 600k voters at one place. 4/

It's dangerous to reduce number of polling places so drastically, especially in city with highest African-American population. But it's just not true to say it's one polling place for 600k voters. 5/

Let's talk Lexington (Fayette), second largest city. It has received 92,611 requests for mail-in ballots, out of about 240k registered.

108,864 people voted in 2019 general election; 48,305 voted in 2016 primary (though R's had a presidential caucus, not primary). 6/

So, again, at 50% turnout, we would expect around 120k total voters; that leaves maybe 30k voters remaining--and that doesn't include early votes from the past 2 weeks or on Monday. 7/

Lex will also have 1 polling place, at UK football field. Again, one location with lots of funnels for different precincts. Like Louisville, they will have e-pollbooks to check people in and direct them to correct line (if voter is in wrong line, they can still vote there) 8/

Now, none of this is ideal. Even with record turnout, it could have been HIGHER but for problems, long lines, etc. It also doesn't help to have media frenzy about potential long lines, which could itself deter voters from showing up! 9/

That said, election officials--who are looking at this closely--suggest that even if Louisville and Lexington have even record-breaking turnout, lines shouldn't be more than 30-45 minutes. THAT'S STILL NOT GOOD, but it's not many hours (I hope!). 10/

It's also NOT GOOD to have only one polling place in such large counties, with transportation being difficult for a lot of people. I think the court hearing a case over this should have given more credit to the VRA section 2 claim, esp, in Louisville. Transit issues are real. 11/

It's NOT GOOD to have only one polling place when that could deter people from showing up. It's NOT GOOD to impact minority voters. That can improperly suppress the vote.

But media shouldn't exacerbate problem by predicting huge lines, esp, w/o looking at actual numbers. 12/

Instead, the key message is that anyone who hasn't yet voted but can should VOTE TOMORROW AT THE EARLY VOTING LOCATION! Take the pressure off of Tuesday's in-person voting. 13/

Now, if we don't see long lines, and we do see record turnout, it's not necessarily something to celebrate, especially because, as mentioned, one central location might have deterred some voters. 14/

Counties should have added polling places. They likely would have if they could have ensured enough trained poll workers. PEOPLE are main blocking point.

Bipartisan election officials are truly doing the best they can under not ideal circumstances. 15/

That still doesn't excuse having only one polling location for tens of thousands of voters. But it's NOT one polling place for 600k voters.

Let's use REAL FACTS and DATA to evaluate this as best we can. And let's not deter votes further by predicting a huge mess. 16/

Looking forward to Novemger, all of this shows that KY must allow for no-excuse absentee balloting AND have multiple polling places in November, when turnout will be much higher. So let's do it! Volunteer now to be a poll worker! 17/

Also, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we will have 75% turnout. That would be amazing! And record-smashing. And if that happens, yes, lines might be very long. So yes, again, we should have had more polling places. Let's double down efforts now to recruit more poll workers. 18/

Finally, again, if we are concerned about lines on Tuesday, the #1 thing to do is encourage people to VOTE TOMORROW (Monday) to reduce the pressure.

Also--make sure you have your absentee ballot postmarked by Tuesday. /end of rant

Edit to #3: I meant 75k in Louisville on Tues, not statewide. That would be massive, unprecedented turnout.