1. Bloomberg @business just reported that Florida cases rose 3.0% today, below the 7-day average, 3.7%. This is good, right? No. Like many other places, FL cases vary across the week in a reasonably consistent pattern because of reporting delays over weekends.
2. Mondays are usually low-increase days for Florida. The bad news is that today's 3.0% increase compares to 2.3% Monday last week and just 1.5% the previous week. This is what matters. This is why the 7-day average number of new FL cases has risen for the 21st straight day...
3. ...It now stands at 3,328, having doubled in just eight days. If this continues, Fl will be reporting 26.6K cases *per day* by mid-July. Right now, the 7-day average for the *entire US* is... 26.6K.
4. Is this actually going to happen? Probably not; people are likely to start voluntarily reducing their contact with others as they see the numbers soaring. But the risk is real, and as far as I can tell the state of Florida has no plan to stop it.
