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Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
@FatTailCapital
Jun 22, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I don't need to watch Apple #WWDC 2020 because I watched Google I/O 2016.
When Android got Apple features announced in 2020:
Change default email/browser app: 2008 (inception)
Widgets: 2009
Translate (app): 2010
Cycling directions: 2010
Picture in picture: 2017
Come at me fanboys. Tell me about the customer stickiness and how it's a luxury good.

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More from @FatTailCapital

Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Mar 10, 2022
Here are my top takeaways from the Morgan Stanley TMT conference in San Francisco this week (1/n): 🧵 👇
Stop giving advice to CEOs on how they should run their businesses. I know you think your 3 years of equity research experience at Citi gave you worldly insights into how to run a Fortune 500 technology company, but I promise you, they 💯 do not give a shit.
Stop eating the apple strudels and hit the gym, fatties. The pandemic has not been kind to some of you. Maybe you should’ve actually bought a Peloton for yourself while you were yolo-ing into the shares at $80 in 4Q.
Read 10 tweets
Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Jun 15, 2021
Long thesis or seminal anti-trust paper? The incoming FTC Chair, @linamkhan, actually wrote one of the best investment analyses on Amazon I've ever read.
"loss leading pays higher returns with platform-based e-commerce than it does with brick-and-mortar stores"
"online retailers ... face the high entry barriers of a railroad coupled with the relatively low exit costs typical of brick-and-mortar retailers"
Read 6 tweets
Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Jan 20, 2021
A story about govt waste and a long pitch on $LMT $NOC $RTX and $HII: While I like to joke about the F-35, this is about the Zumwalt-class destroyer program, the Navy’s cool but expensive next-gen stealth destroyer that can’t shoot, isn’t very stealthy, and doesn't float well.
US military procurement is kind of the opposite of Occam’s razor: where there’s a cheap, simple solution that’s 80% effective, we find a way to do it that’s 20% better but 1,000% more expensive. This is how our tax dollars end up in the pockets of the military industrial complex.
The Zumwalts were designed around three key features, 1) massive long-range phased array radars, 2) an Advanced Gun System firing highly accurate artillery shells called the Long-Range Land Attack Projectile (LRLAP), and 3) a stealthy hull.
Read 11 tweets
Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Jan 20, 2021
Someone pointed out to me that Google has averaged 35% returns in odd years and 5% in even years. It outperforms QQQ by 12% in odd years and underperforms by -12% in even years. Why? Is there a nefarious explanation here (timing of stock grants, etc.)?
Same data in chart form:
It holds true going back to the IPO even if you exclude the IPO year and 08-09 GFC periods.
Read 4 tweets
Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Oct 14, 2020
One of the greatest omnichannel transition stories that is under discussed is Brazil's Magazine Luiza, which has quietly 500-bagged ("only" 300x in USD) in 5 years since Frederico Trajano took over as CEO. Image
The family-owned "Magalu" was founded in 1957 with a single store selling appliances and the story progresses much like other growth retail stories through store expansion and acquisitions.
Frederico, part of the 3rd generation, was early to see the disruptive effects of the Internet on retail and helped launched the ecommerce site in 2000 when the Internet was just taking off in Brazil.
Read 6 tweets
Fat Tail Capital Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020
As 3Q ends, I look forward to another round of the same 13-Fs with the same 100 holdings. Here's a preview of holdings by manager:

Tiger Cub/80% of the performance of QQQ with 1000% the fees:

AMZN
BABA
MSFT
MA
TDG
NFLX
MELI
"Value" PM who drew the “too expensive” line at AMZN/NFLX:

GOOG
CHTR
FB
TMUS
IQV
FIS
RTX
PM who read The Outsiders three times:

IAC
LSXMK
TDG
ORLY
CSU CN
TXN
IBKR
Read 10 tweets

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