One other thing here: usually, you'd expect the election to revert to the mean. And if forced to bet, I'd bet on Biden's margin narrowing, possibly to the point where the Electoral College is competitive.
But, it's not clear that the "mean" looks so great for Trump.
But, it's not clear that the "mean" looks so great for Trump.
The three big stories right now are: COVID, the protests and the economy.
COVID is not going away by November. It *could* get better. It could also get worse. But there's likely to be some mix of life still not being very normal, quite a few people getting sick, or both.
COVID is not going away by November. It *could* get better. It could also get worse. But there's likely to be some mix of life still not being very normal, quite a few people getting sick, or both.
As for the economy, voters give Trump surprisingly high ratings despite objectively bad data. But that may partly reflect the HUGE stimulus that people got. Disposable income actually went way UP in April, for instance. That will run out without further legislation, though. 
The protests are the least certain. I wouldn't know how to predict their dynamics. Will they still be ongoing in November? Maybe. Will they look the same as today? Maybe not. But voters give Trump TERRIBLE grades on race relations and REALLY dislike his response to the protests.
So while it's possible the protests will fade, or become less popular (they're currently fairly popular) I think it's less likely that Trump will be able to exploit them, somehow. Maybe a different politician could. But Trump is too clumsy and just isn't trusted on this stuff.
One other dynamic re: COVID. To the extent people let their guard down, that's what can problems in the form of surges etc. Frankly, that's what seems to have happened now. You ignore it, and it forces itself into our lives again. So that makes it uniquely persistent as an issue.
