Today, COVID cases hit a record high.
Also today, the seven-day average of deaths hit their lowest mark since March.
What does it mean? Here are 3 interpretations.
Also today, the seven-day average of deaths hit their lowest mark since March.
What does it mean? Here are 3 interpretations.
1) Most pessimistic: Deaths lag positive cases by several weeks. If the fatality rate is constant, we could be looking at a massive second "wave" of deaths (on top of a not-really-finished first wave) within a month.
2) Less pessimistic, still bad: Several factors—including better hospital treatment, more knowledge about what works and doesn't, better protection of nursing homes—is pushing down the fatality rate. So, deaths won't rise as much as cases.
3) It's mostly about age: The evidence is mounting that this new wave-on-a-wave of new cases is younger, healthier, and less likely to die than the cases than the cases that were coming back positive in March and April.
Much more on that here-->
Much more on that here-->
My bet is a little bit of all of the above. Send me more theories if you have them. And please, non-seniors, don't interpret the lower fatality rate for <65 as a signal that this disease isn't dangerous.
