1/ My hypothesis in regards to backyard offices: most of the ones we’re seeing are toys, very small, made of lightweight and non-durable materials, and lacking amenities
2/ They’re basically nice looking, enclosed cubicles. Most wont last through multiple seasons, and more importantly, ppl will realize just how much time they’re spending there and want something bigger and more comfortable
3/ However long COVID lasts, working from home is the new default which means we’re going to spend years of our lives in these things. We’re going to see a flight to quality as ppl realize these home offices are their most important physical space
4/ Alongside WFH, market will also grow as ppl move out of cities and have more space. Most backyard offices are highly customized, using non-standard sizes and materials and designs. It won’t remotely scale to the volume we’ll need in the coming years
5/ Instead of cute little backyard cubicles, I think ppl will gravitate toward full living units for their home offices. I.e. ADUs (accessory dwelling units)
6/ Though more expensive, they’re also far more durable and multifunctional. Can be not only home offices, but rooms for relatives, guest houses, vacation houses, emergency shelter, rental units for extra income, storage space, home gym, recording studio, kids play room, etc.
7/ Meeting the threshold of “full featured living unit” makes it far more useful and adaptable for the uncertainty that future will bring. And changing work/home/family conditions
8/ But ADUs can’t be made fast enough. Even before COVID, every ADU producer was backlogged with years long waiting lists. Many states are passing legislation making it easier/more profitable to add them, further increasing demand. Again, they won’t scale
9/ The solution is container homes. There’s over 1 million abandoned shipping containers in the US alone. Older ones are better since pesticides take time to leech out. Enormous existing stock of structural frames lying around, already built
10/ Shipping containers haven’t taken off yet because they’ve been treated like custom homes: everything infinitely customizable, which kills benefits of standardization/cost/efficiency and therefore doesn’t compare favorably with traditional construction
11/ But what if they were standardized, like products, with only a few basic options? You could line them up and produce them in batches, working to fixed designs optimized for tradeworkers. Wouldn’t require a factory or on-site installation besides a flatbed truck
12/ The demand for work-from-home offices just turned ADUs from desirable investments to immediate needs. With conventional 30-year financing they would only cost a few hundred dollars a month. Absolutely enormous opportunity here
