One urge the campaigns will need to resist is investing in the CLOSEST STATES right now (given that Biden is well ahead currently) as opposed to the TIPPING POINT STATES that would be decisive if the election tightens.
Georgia is close right now, as are TX, OH and IA. But, those states aren't Trump's biggest problems. Instead, it's that he's way behind in MI, WI, PA and FL and to a lesser extent AZ and NC. Those states give Biden plenty of winning options.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
So Biden can win GA. But in the scenarios where he wins GA, he'll probably already have won FL and/or NC, meaning the Electoral College may already have become a lost cause for Trump.
Maybe Texas is different because it's *so* many Electoral Votes and it's a bit hard to predict (historically low turnout but that may be changing, plus the COVID situation there) that it's worth taking a flier on. And I do think campaigns need plan for a multitude of scenarios.
After all, any election where the race is competitive in November requires a substantial change from today, with Biden up +2 or +3 (or less) instead of +9. If there's a big shift back toward Trump, it may not be uniform across states.
Still, you need to swallow your pride and prepare for which states matter if the election tightens. For Trump, that means conceding the map could look real bad if Biden's current margin holds. For Biden, it means not taking swingy tipping-point states like MI and WI for granted.
