Thread by @sunny_hundal

This may sound controversial but bear with me....

I think we need to prepare to *live with* the Coronavirus.

People think we're coming out of the worst but the opposite is true. This is the worst its been so far.

We need to prepare, and our way of life and economies need to prepare, for what's coming, instead of blindly stumbling into it.

Instead, our national conversation seems to be either about:
- going back to normality
- or building systems to beat it.

What if we can't do either?

Firstly, if you aren't convinced the Coronavirus is out of control then you've been missing the news.

What's happening in the US now is nothing short of a catastrophe. The worst case scenario is unfolding.

This week the stockmarkets should crash like never before.

I'll come back to the US in a bit but that's not the only bit of bad news.

In India, the coronovirus count is *worse* now than it was before lockdown, mostly because the government botched it so badly.

Big cities like Delhi and Mumbai are already overwhelmed.

It's largely the same story in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

But this isn't because the region is too over-populated or poor. It is down to bad governance.

If a relatively poor state like Kerela can manage to control it, the rest should have managed too.
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…

Adding to the US and most of South Asia is Latin America - a region where Brazil stands out for its terrible management thanks to its far-right President.

Brazil's official death-toll is now the second highest in the world.

opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaa…

Here's what Imran Khan told people a few weeks ago (surprised this didn't get more coverage):

"The world has agreed, the richest countries have come to the conclusion that the virus will spread no matter what. Nothing can be done about it.”
npr.org/sections/coron…

Some places like New Zealand, Scotland, Greece, other parts of Europe and East Asia have so far done an admirable job of containing the virus.

But I'm increasingly convinced this isn't sustainable.

Three reasons why the Coronavirus will grow

1) Bad governance in large parts of the world (U.S., S Asia, Latin America) and no international planning.

2) Social distancing and face masks not enough.

3) Lockdown will cost more jobs (our economies aren't resilient enough)

You may ask: Won't testing and tracing, social isolation and face masks work?

I think the evidence fairly conclusive now: it won't be enough.

Parts of Australia are seeing a spike again:


Why? Hidden, community transmission

If you think - 'But surely we knew all this?' - that's not entirely true.

This worrying new report in the NYT shows scientists are now realising the coronavirus spreads far more than they realised - quietly, through asymptomatic people.

nytimes.com/2020/06/27/wor…

MEANWHILE - religious groups are *pushing hard* to open up again, including in the UK. They lively mostly on donations.

But community transmission from places of worship, where large numbers gather together, is a big problem.

This is a coming disaster
barficulture.tv/politics/613

NOW.

Let's say Europe and East Asia, through good governance, manage to control the virus better than the US, S Asia, Africa and LatAm.

What then? Do we ban travel from those areas?

The EU is looking at exactly this!
nytimes.com/2020/06/23/wor…

So

1) International travel is going to stay a nightmare. A *LOT* ofg jobs are going to be lost in the sector.

2) Mass events will have to remain restricted for longer. Commuting and enclosed spaces will remain risky for years.

3) What happens to 70+ and vulnerable people?

But most of all, I think we are going to see a sustained drop and uncertainty in economic activity for the next year at least.

The impact of that on all our jobs, since we work in economies that aren't very resilient, is going to be devastating.

I'm not saying all this because I'm defeatist or a pessimist.
I'm an optimist!

But we have underestimated this virus at every step.

We haven't responded well so far because our governments have been unwilling to look clearly at it. We can't keep doing that.