First results of 🇫🇷 2nd-round mayoral elections:
- resounding victory for PM Philippe in Le Havre with estimated 59%. This gives him a landing point should Macron decide to reshuffle top job
- RN (ex-FN) captures Perpignan, a sizeable gain for L Aliot (ex-partner of M Le Pen)
Greens set for gains tonight, in Besançon, Poitiers, possibly even Lille, which would be quite a result. The Socialists have held the town for better part of a century. Martine Aubry has been PS mayor since 2001
Demise of PS, rise of Greens, symbolic force of far-right RN (ex-FN), strength of E Philippe, lack of local roots of Macron’s LREM which still revolves primarily around him: all of these forces will help shape French politics over next 2 years ahead of 2022 presidential election
Extraordinary list of French towns captured by the Greens this evening, including (according to exit polls) Strasbourg, Lyon, possibly Lille. Hidalgo (PS) victory in Paris also due in part to Green backing. Will shift balance of power within Green-Socialist alliances.
Recount of vote in Lille taking place tonight after first count gave Martine Aubry (Socialist) victory with margin of 227 votes. Early exit polls suggesting Greens captured the town seem to have been wrong
The Green wave continues across France: Strasbourg, Lyon, Annecy, Bordeaux (Alain Juppé's former city), Marseille, (though not Lille in the end, which Martine Aubry held). Before this vote, the only big town run by the Greens was Genoble. Quite something
And, for the record, a pretty impressive result tonight in Paris for Anne Hidalgo, backed by the Greens. And a pretty dreadful result for Macron's LREM, which once hoped to capture the French capital. (@IpsosFrance exit poll)
⚠️Political earthquake in France. Le Pen’s hard-right party and allies have won a massive lead in first-round parliamentary voting. Early results from @IpsosFrance give the RN 34%. This means it could, possibly, win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly on July 7th 1/
The left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (LFI, Socialists, Greens, Communists), had a good night too, coming second with 28.1%, according to @IpsosFrance. It could become the second-biggest parliamentary bloc after second-round voting 2/
The vote was crushing and painful for Macron’s centrists, who scored 20.3% according to @IpsosFrance. The centre has not held against the hard-right and hard-left. France is heading for a period of deep uncertainty and political instability 3/
Châteaudun in rural west-central 🇫🇷points to a paradox at this election. The town is calm; its hospital has more day-surgery beds; jobs are going at the local engineering plant and another that makes Thermomix cookers. Yet voters are angry
France gets plenty wrong, and Macron has made plenty of mistakes. But amid all the anger worth recalling how the country still manages to do pretty well on many of the things that really matter 2/
France spends more on social programmes as a % GDP than any other OECD country ⬇️ 3/
Emmanuel Macron is nothing if not a risk-taker. Without that quality he would never have won the 🇫🇷presidency. But this time his gamble is putting his legacy, and credibility, on the line. Why did he do it, and where will it lead? 1/11🧵
The president’s calculation seems to be that, in the coming months, he was likely to face an irresistible political demand for fresh parliamentary elections. By dissolving parliament now, Macron has at least made the choice his, and controlled the timing 2/11
More than this, Macron seeks what an adviser calls a “moment of clarification”, or what others might say constitutes calling voters’ bluff. Either popular support for the RN is real, and he will try to put its policies under proper scrutiny and expose their contradictions 3/11
Macron on French TV this evening :
The war in 🇺🇦 is “existential…”If Russia were to win, life for the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe. Who can seriously believe that Putin, who has respected no limits, would stop there?”
Macron: “All options are possible. In order to have peace in Ukraine, we cannot be weak”
Macron: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero”
"After nightfall on Saturday April 22 Admiral Rolland put a call through to the president on a secure line…It was a dangerous mission, but Macron was ready to take the risk."
The inside story of the French rescue operation from Khartoum in @TheEconomist economist.com/1843/2023/05/0…
I spoke to the French military and diplomatic officials who planned the operation, as well as the pilot of the first A400M to land in Khartoum. The crucial early steps that France took – including taking control of the airstrip – enabled allies to conduct their own airlifts
A week before 🇫🇷special forces landed in Khartoum on April 22nd, diplomats in Paris at met at the Crisis and Support Centre. It was the day fighting broke out in Sudan. Two days later 🇫🇷began to plan for a possible evacuation, and the embassy contacted 🇫🇷 nationals on the ground
Updated figures from the 🇫🇷 foreign-affairs ministry, following two further airlifts from Khartoum, Sudan, that the French carried out on April 24th. France has now evacuated:
- 491 people, of which
- 196 are French
- 295 are from 36 other nationalities