Exit polls for the first round of the Polish elections are in. The incumbent (just back from the White House) has 41.8%.58% voted for opposition. In the second round he faces Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw. Any outcome still possible.
In any case, Trump's blessing turned out not to be a knock out punch
For those who don't follow regularly: the current president, Andrzej Duda, is famous for having helped break the constitution and pack the courts. The challenger, Traszkowski, is calling for a return to rule of law.
Duda's campaign has been notably homophobic. He has said that "LGBT" aren't people, they are an ideology. Whatever that means
The question now is how the 30% who voted for neither will vote in the second round, two weeks from now. Many who dislike Poland's polarized politics will stay home.
One huge issue, if the second round is close, will be Poles abroad, who are complaining that they have had trouble voting. Some think the government is trying to prevent them from voting.
In any case, we can now dispense with the myth that the nationalist socialists represent the majority. Despite titling the playing field -politicizing courts, media, police, civil service - they still do not.
In the context of Poland, where the ruling party claims to represent the "real" nation, this matters. Can the "real" nation be a minority?
At this exact moment, the second round is 50-50
