Thread by @BillHanage

Cases have been climbing across the sunbelt. Healthcare is getting strained. Some thoughts – including an #optimismspa 1/n

First the increase is real. And while it is not possible to definitively tie it to any particular change or part of reopening that happened over the last couple months, it is stubbornly there

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1277305314413428738?s=20

2/n

If haters gonna hate, then viruses gonna transmit given the chance. Duh. Those who have suggested the increases are only due to increased testing are wrong. These are real outbreaks of unknown dimensions. However -now for the optimism 3/n

We are capturing increases in the south earlier in the epidemic curve because in the spring, large outbreaks built up in the NE before any distancing happened, and they were concentrated in younger age groups. They were not detected because of current testing criteria 4/n

These then led to outbreaks in more vulnerable cohorts. It was disease and death in *those* groups that showed the scale of the problem. The doubling times across the South have been slower. That makes sense – contact rates are different 5/n

You can’t avoid an outbreak entirely without trying, but the outbreak will be different. It is slower. Some people including me even thought it might be

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266922888776556545?s=20

6/n

That means a window for action. Changes in multiple states over the last couple days are really welcome. But while they may take the foot off of the pandemic gas, we should be prepared to use the brake as well 7/n

(and if you are one of those people who seem to have decided it's inevitable, i *do* hope you checked with your constituents in advance that a certain amount of disease was acceptable) 8/n

If I had my way, we would have handled this very differently. Given that we are where we are, all we can do is work to stop it being worse. Hands to the pumps etc. Long road ahead 9-out