For all the talk of economic anxiety in 2016, there was an argument that Trump won precisely because the economy was improving and the election wasn't dominated by crises. People wouldn't have taken a flyer on him in riskier times, like 2008.
I think we're seeing that now.
I think we're seeing that now.
Trump's reliance on electoral distraction is failing because the crises are too big for him to distract people from. And his presidency is failing because he's the last person in the world you want handling a complex, fast-moving crisis that takes a lot of coordination and focus.
To state the obvious, I was against ever taking a flyer on Trump, and I think the results have been predictably catastrophic.
But for all that punditry held he was a reaction to crisis, I don't think he was. People don't want a chaos president when the world is in chaos.
But for all that punditry held he was a reaction to crisis, I don't think he was. People don't want a chaos president when the world is in chaos.
This isn't to deny or downplay the many problems and catastrophes unfolding in America in 2016. But it wasn't an election dominated by a fast-moving crisis, the way 2008 was, or 2020 is.
I'm not 100% sure of this idea, but I lean towards it: The irony of Trump is that Obama's competence made his election possible, and his incompetence will make his reelection impossible.
Which is why we're seeing polling like this:
