For AMZN to generate a 10% pre-tax cash-flow return from here (at $2,878), it needs to distribute US$144bn annually into perpetuity, starting from today - almost 3x AAPL's current profits. And that number compounds by 10% a year for every year that goes by without them paying it.
Seven years from now, assuming they haven't paid any dividends during that period, and including 1-1.5% annual stock dilution, that number will exceed US$300bn.
Warren Buffett used similar math in one of his shareholder letters circa 1999 to highlight how unlikely it was Cisco would justify it's valuation. He also pointed out at the time how investors forget investors as a whole cannot take more out of market than what companies earn.
Anyone that buys and holds AMZN from current levels into perpetuity will make significantly less than 10% compounded. That won't preclude the stock galloping much higher in the short/medium term, but it's virtually impossible in long term at current prices. Numbers are too big.
