French PM Edouard Philippe has resigned. A new PM will be announced in the next few hours, according to the Elysée
And it won’t be Edouard Philippe again
Under the French Fifth Republic, it is rare that a president keeps the same PM for his entire mandate. Sarkozy was an exception:
De Gaulle: 3
Pompidou: 2
Giscard: 2
Mitterrand: 3 + 4
Chirac: 2 + 2
Sarkozy: 1
Hollande: 3
So replacing Philippe doesn't necessarily reflect a falling-out between him and Macron. Bar a few noted policy differences, they worked together well. In some ways it's actually a risk, as Philippe could build his own political future from Le Havre, where he was elected mayor
Edouard Philippe has in fact been more popular than Macron for most of their joint tenure. Since April the gap has widened. June poll average via @leJDD:
Macron 39%
Philippe 49%
Well few saw that coming. The new French prime minister is Jean Castex, Macron's covid-19 coordinator, and somebody largely unknown to the general public
This is what the new French PM Jean Castex looks like, because nobody seems to know
The new French PM Jean Castex is
-an énarque
-from the centre-right
-mayor of Prades, in the Pyrénées-Orientales
-former chief of staff to Xavier Bertrand, when he was a minister under Sarkozy
In other words, the perfect profile to enable Macron to run everything himself
The one new angle Jean Castex may bring to government is a close connection to la France profonde. He is mayor of a small village of 6,000 in the Pyrenees, and spends every weekend there. A new form of decentralised decision-making is expected to be part of Macron's "new course"
I understand that new French PM Jean Castex may appoint as chief of staff Nicolas Revel, who worked w/ Macron at the Elysée under Socialist PR Hollande. If so this is interesting. Revel was chief of staff to Bertrand Delanoë (ex-Socialist Paris mayor) so brings balance from left
And it looks as if Macron is going to give Philippe a new "mission": to sort out the chaotic presidential party and its centrist allies. If so, hard for Philippe to build his own independent political future🤔
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⚠️Political earthquake in France. Le Pen’s hard-right party and allies have won a massive lead in first-round parliamentary voting. Early results from @IpsosFrance give the RN 34%. This means it could, possibly, win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly on July 7th 1/
The left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (LFI, Socialists, Greens, Communists), had a good night too, coming second with 28.1%, according to @IpsosFrance. It could become the second-biggest parliamentary bloc after second-round voting 2/
The vote was crushing and painful for Macron’s centrists, who scored 20.3% according to @IpsosFrance. The centre has not held against the hard-right and hard-left. France is heading for a period of deep uncertainty and political instability 3/
Châteaudun in rural west-central 🇫🇷points to a paradox at this election. The town is calm; its hospital has more day-surgery beds; jobs are going at the local engineering plant and another that makes Thermomix cookers. Yet voters are angry
France gets plenty wrong, and Macron has made plenty of mistakes. But amid all the anger worth recalling how the country still manages to do pretty well on many of the things that really matter 2/
France spends more on social programmes as a % GDP than any other OECD country ⬇️ 3/
Emmanuel Macron is nothing if not a risk-taker. Without that quality he would never have won the 🇫🇷presidency. But this time his gamble is putting his legacy, and credibility, on the line. Why did he do it, and where will it lead? 1/11🧵
The president’s calculation seems to be that, in the coming months, he was likely to face an irresistible political demand for fresh parliamentary elections. By dissolving parliament now, Macron has at least made the choice his, and controlled the timing 2/11
More than this, Macron seeks what an adviser calls a “moment of clarification”, or what others might say constitutes calling voters’ bluff. Either popular support for the RN is real, and he will try to put its policies under proper scrutiny and expose their contradictions 3/11
Macron on French TV this evening :
The war in 🇺🇦 is “existential…”If Russia were to win, life for the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe. Who can seriously believe that Putin, who has respected no limits, would stop there?”
Macron: “All options are possible. In order to have peace in Ukraine, we cannot be weak”
Macron: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero”
"After nightfall on Saturday April 22 Admiral Rolland put a call through to the president on a secure line…It was a dangerous mission, but Macron was ready to take the risk."
The inside story of the French rescue operation from Khartoum in @TheEconomist economist.com/1843/2023/05/0…
I spoke to the French military and diplomatic officials who planned the operation, as well as the pilot of the first A400M to land in Khartoum. The crucial early steps that France took – including taking control of the airstrip – enabled allies to conduct their own airlifts
A week before 🇫🇷special forces landed in Khartoum on April 22nd, diplomats in Paris at met at the Crisis and Support Centre. It was the day fighting broke out in Sudan. Two days later 🇫🇷began to plan for a possible evacuation, and the embassy contacted 🇫🇷 nationals on the ground
Updated figures from the 🇫🇷 foreign-affairs ministry, following two further airlifts from Khartoum, Sudan, that the French carried out on April 24th. France has now evacuated:
- 491 people, of which
- 196 are French
- 295 are from 36 other nationalities