Thread by @_johnbye

The government seems to have quietly dropped a bombshell in its latest testing data.

65% of tests "sent out" HAVEN'T BEEN USED

That's 2.4 MILLION tests that were counted but NOT TESTED

So 23% of ALL the "tests" in the headline figures HAVEN'T BEEN TESTED (yet)

Details follow.

The data is in the new look daily update, which finally distinguishes between how many tests are "made available" (performed in person OR sent out) and how many have been processed in a lab (ie, tested).

10.3 million made available
7.9 million processed
2.4 million NOT processed

So where are the missing tests?

Tests done "in person" are counted when they're processed, so there's no shortfall there. That eliminates -

Pillar 1 - 3,040,901
Pillar 2 in person - 2,249,309
Pillar 3 - 1,123,615
Pillar 4 in person - 216,513

Total: 6,630,338 tests processed

That only leaves 1,302,244 tests that could have been returned and tested from those sent out in pillar 2 or 4.

Pillar 2 sent out 3,143,686 tests
Pillar 4 sent out 566,487 tests

Total:
3,710,173 tests sent out
1,302,244 returned and tested

So 65% of them haven't been tested!

This suggests the government's testing numbers are pure fantasy.

Most of the tests they sent out to pump their numbers and reach an arbitrary 100,000 a day target were either thrown away or are still sitting in warehouses waiting to be used.

No wonder @UKStatsAuth wasn't happy!

If you want to check the numbers, it's all in the new daily update.

Confusingly, in the per pillar data "processed" means in person tests only, while in the overall volume data it means ALL tests that were processed, including ones sent out and returned.

gov.uk/guidance/coron…

This is the government's explanation in the methodology doc.

But we can see from their test and trace report data that the first point shouldn't be a major factor.

So most of the shortfall must be the other issues - tests spoilt, not returned, or not registered on their system.

Tests that just haven't been returned / processed yet?

They only sent out 430,000 tests in the week to July 2nd, and claim 94% of home tests and 96.5% of satellite center tests get results within 72 hours of a test being registered as done on their system by the person using it.

That implies most of the missing tests haven't been used at all, or were used but not registered on their system, rendering them useless because the labs didn't know who the samples came from and/or when they were taken.

Test and trace report here -
gov.uk/government/pub…