Thread by @LordVulpesZerda

So, for those of y'all wondering how feasible a Kanye West presidential campaign and #Unity2020 is in regards to ballot access this late in the year, here is a thread detailing each state's requirements with information from ballot-access.org/2020/04/27/apr…

In order for #Kanye2020 to be an actual thing and not a PR stunt, he needs to make enough state ballots to win 270 electoral votes. There are 538 total electoral votes representing all 50 states and DC is granted electoral votes equal to the smallest state (23rd Amendment).

First up is Alabama (9 electoral votes). He needs to collect petition signatures from 5,000 registered voters by Aug 13th. Many signatures get thrown due to technicalities, so it is recommended that a candidate get twice as many signatures. He can meet this requirements.

Alaska (3 electoral votes). He needs to collect 3,212 signatures by August 5th. You may think that 3,212 is an odd requirement number. The reason being is that some states set nice even numbers while others base their requirements on past elections. This state might be difficult.

Arizona (11 electoral votes). He needs 37,769 signatures by Sep 4th. Huge requirement, but also a large state with a relatively late deadline. He would either need to rely heavily on grassroots or paid signature gatherers to make it.

Arkansas (6 electoral votes). He needs 1,000 signatures by Aug 3rd. Even if his presidential campaign is half-assed, he ought to be able to make these requirements.

California (55 electoral votes). He needs a whooping 196,964 signatures by Aug 7th. It is the largest state, so there are millions of people who can sign... but that will require a lot of organization. He might be better off trying to get the nomination by a third party here.

Colorado, Oklahoma, Louisiana (9, 7, and 8 electoral votes). I've combined these three states because they actually have a payment method that is much easier than collecting signatures to get on the ballot. $1,000 for CO, $35,000 for OK, and $500 for LA. He can afford it.

Connecticut (7 electoral votes). 7,500 signatures by Aug 5th. Not much to really say here. The requirements and deadlines are pretty middle of the road.

Delaware (3 electoral votes): This is an odd state due to hilarious ballot access laws. He could collect 7,118 sigs by July 15th... OR he could collect 720 sigs by Aug 25th by creating a new political party. It's easier to create a fake political party than run independent.

DC (3 electoral votes): 5,000 sigs by Aug 5th. A bit of a high requirement relative to population size, but high population density makes signature gathering a lot easier.

Florida (29 electoral votes): 132,781 sigs by July 15th. This one seems nearly impossible from an organizational standpoint. The best case is to bring forth a lawsuit requesting an extension due to the pandemic, which has been granted in several states.

Georgia (16 electoral votes): 7,500 sigs by Aug 14th. The deadline had been extended due to pandemic.

Hawaii (4 electoral votes): 4,347 sigs by Aug 5th.

Idaho (4 electoral votes): 1,000 sigs by Aug 24th.

All of these are ballots that he ought to make.

Illinois (20 electoral votes), Indiana (11), New Mexico (5), New York (29), North Carolina (15), and Texas (38). Ballot deadlines have already passed. He can only make the ballot if a ballot qualified third party nominates him. This represents 118 total electoral votes.

This is the area where waiting this long hurts his odds. He could make the New Mexico ballot as the nominee for the Working Families Party or New York as the Reform nominee. The other four its either get picked by the Libertarians/Greens or bust.

Iowa (6 electoral votes): 1,500 sigs by Aug 14th

Kansas (5): 5,000 by Aug 3rd

Kentucky (8): 5,000 by Sep 4th

Maine (4): 4,000 by Aug 3rd

These are predominately white states and sparsely-populated states. it will be interesting to see how Kayne does here ballot access wise.

Maryland (10 electoral votes): 10,000 sigs by Aug 3rd.

Massachusetts (11): 10,000 sigs by July 28th.

Michigan (16): 12,000 sigs by July 16th.

These are pretty large requirements, if he can make Michigan that will say a lot about how serious his campaign is.

Minnesota (10 electoral votes): 2,000 sigs by Aug 18th.

Mississippi (6): 1,000 sigs by Sep 4th.

Missouri (10): 10,000 sigs by July 27th.

Montana (3): 5,000 sigs by Aug 12th.

Nebraska (5): 2,500 sigs by Aug 3rd.

Nevada (6): 9,608 sigs by July 10th.

This is another state that will demonstrate how serious Kanye is relatively soon given how close and high the deadline is. Lawsuits may try to push the deadline back or lower the signature requirements.

New Hampshire (4): 3,000 by Aug 5th.

New Jersey (14): 800 by July 27th.

North Dakota (3): 4,000 by Aug 31st.

There were seven third parties that made the NJ ballot in 2016. If Kanye cannot do that then he shouldn't even bother.

Oregon (7): 17,893 by Aug 25th.

Pennsylvania (20): 5,000 by Aug 3rd.

Rhode Island (4): 1,000 by Sep 3rd.

South Carolina (9): 10,000 by July 15th.

South Dakota (3): 3,393 by Aug 4th.

Tennessee (11): 275 by Aug 18th. This is by far the lowest total for the states that require signatures, but the clerical requirements are a bit more difficult in regards to presidential electors. Having good lawyers is more important than good signature gatherers.

Utah (6): 1,000 by Aug 17th.

Vermont (3): 1,000 by Aug 3rd.

Virginia (13): 5,000 by Aug 21st.

Washington (12): 1,000 by July 25th.

West Virginia (5): 7,145 by Aug 3rd.

Wisconsin (10): 2,000 by Aug 4th.

Wyoming (3): 4,018 by Aug 25th.

So those are the requirements for each states. Some states have some weird quirks that I didn't mention. For example, Montana requires that signatures come from various counties. These details are minor in the overall picture.

Overall, the only way he ends up on all 50 states and DC ballots are if the Libertarians give him their nomination. They have already nominated Jo Jorgensen. In theory, they could nominate Kanye as Prez and Jo as VP if she and the party agree with it.

That would save him millions in ballot access legal fees and signature gather. The Libertarians would also make a ton of money off of fundraising and new membership. The downside is that both Kanye and the Libertarian Party would have to adjust their platforms to be compatible.

If Kanye West does go the independent route then he could realistically end up on anywhere between 30-45 state ballots. It really depends on how organized his campaign is how and strength of his grassroots. Twitter support and real life political support are not the same thing.

That is not to say that a strong online cannot translate to a strong ground game, but strong online presence can inflate actual support. The candidates that stand out are Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. Both appeared relatively strong online but that did not translate into results

In the current political climate, celebrities are told to "use their platforms to get involved with politics" and that does create some confusion. It's difficult to tell which celebrities care/know about what they are doing and which ones are really just narcissists with a brand.

With Kanye, his motives/thoughts are especially difficult to read. Due to this there are four distinct outcomes that I can see his presidential campaign taking. These range from amounting to absolutely nothing to possibly altering American history.

Outcome 1: Kayne overestimated the amount of work needed to run a campaign and secure ballot access. He never formally filed with the FEC and his campaign more or less ends up being the equivalent of Kid Rock running for Senate. The media covered it, but it didn't amount to much

Outcome 2: Kayne is being serious and this is more than a PR stunt. However, the lack of organizational support or grassroots this late in the year means that he only ends up on a handful of ballots. The results end up being similar to Roseanne Barr's 2012 presidential campaign.

Yep. You read that correctly. Roseanne Barr ran for president as the Peace and Freedom Party's nominee, which is a far-left minor party that has ballot access in California but is almost nonexistent everywhere else.

Outcome 3: Kayne is not only serious but willing to dedicate the next four months and millions of dollars to his campaign. He is able to end up on 44 ballots and make the debates. While his campaign is significant, he never comes close to winning. The Perot of 2020.

Outcome 4: Kayne is able to get the backing of a major third party and achieve complete ballot access. Voters dislike Trump and Biden so much that Kayne is able to win a plurality of the popular vote but a majority of the electoral college. President Kayne is real.

Personally, I think outcomes 1 and 3 are more likely than 2 and certainly 4. The PR stunt theory is much more likely, but in the event that he feels inspired enough to actually run then the ballot access and organization aspect is something that he can accomplish at Perot levels.