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< Coronavirus #HarrisCounty >
I dont normally do Harris county, I do the 8 county Greater Houston Area.
I figured Id take a focused look at HC because I saw alot of "Fear Porn" about the virus today.
"In Todd we trust" but for those of you who dont, lets look at the numbers 1/8
YES we're seeing the same "Protest Effect" that Ive seen in almost every other area Ive looked at.
See how the model has strongly diverged in deaths, sticking to the pre-protest path, but the cumulative and new cases are rising as expected?
Again, 60+ yo people dont protest. 2/8
Also note that today is day 143 on the model.
We've crested this surge, but there is about 2-3 weeks left of this "hump".

While thats GOOD news, our hospitals are pretty full right now, leveraging (mostly) sustainable surge capacity, and at the peak, we're only 1/2 done. 3/8
TMC reports taht we STILL have plenty of capacity (short term "unsustainable" surge) but they didnt put HOW MANY that was in the chart. 4/8
The point is that in about 2-3 weeks, assuming our R value doenst increase, this thing is gonna get flat REALLY quick and it looks like we are going to get out of it with a REALLY low fatality rate. (less tahn 1/10th of NYC's). 5/8
I still havent seen anything in the data that indicates the Bar Closure or Mask Order has had any effect. I will certainly Post more when/if I see that effect in the data. 6/8
Until then, if you have been vigilant this long, a few more weeks is nothing. (Once you have drank the ocean, it is nothing to drink the river). Keep masking. Keep distancing. Keep yourself and other elderly/co-morbid safe for just a bit longer.
If you are SICK of lockdown or didnt agree with them in the first place, then in just a few weeks you will have all the data you need to make a compelling case for Harris county to get back to normal and continue re-opening. Until that time though, maintain your chill.

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