1/n IMPORTANT: Can someone please publish a homology map of all the beta coronaviruses that have been circulating in human populations ?
Why? Because at least 2-3 papers suggest that there is pre-existing immunity, at least CD4/8 cell mediated, because of cross reactivity.
Why? Because at least 2-3 papers suggest that there is pre-existing immunity, at least CD4/8 cell mediated, because of cross reactivity.
2/n Just two lines of evidence: the Antarctic cruise had 59 percent infection. But what about the other 41 percent ? And the Cell paper by Nusszenweig suggests that at least 40 percent (odd) showed CD4 responses.
3/n Notably, these responses are more capsid directed (and obviously) MHC restricted. As opposed to Spike.
4/n If that's true, then 40 percent of people may be quasi-immune, and it would not be detectable by standard serological testing. That 40-50 percent is an ENORMOUS number. It has many many consequences.
5/n For vaccine development, 40 percent will attenuate the signal enormously, making it hard to run a trial without a large number of patients.
6/n For population immunity, it means that achieving pop wide immunity may have a lower threshold, eg, 20-30 percent. Parts of Boston/Chelsea and NYC may already have reached that number.
8/n And for hospitals, MASKING for another few months, with oxygen (not ventilator supprt) may flatten the curve enough so that the US system is able to deal while we wait for vaccine trials.
9/n I tested myself with the Abbott serology test. I had an Influenza-like illness in Feb, and isolated myself. My number in June was 0.9, with a cutoff of immunity at 1.4. But who made that cutoff? Based on what? What did the 0.9 come from? (it was not 0.0).
10/n My lab has the capacity to test my T cells against capsid (we've made a vaccine-like candidate for T cell responses... more to come). I'm wondering if I should test myself. MORE TO COME
I cannot emphasize how deeply this might influence so many public policy decisions : monitoring, vaccination, etc.
11/n Can someone please make a thread ? I am a technological buffoon.
