A recession is a broad-based decline in economic activity across the country. 2/
Economic suffering is generally a result of the depressed level of economic activity, not the rate of change, and continues long after the official recession ends. 3/
Defining recessions in terms of aggregate economic indicators obscures disparate experiences for different populations. 4/
The Great Recession formally ended in June 2009, but the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in October 2009, the unemployment rate for Black workers peaked in March 2010, and the unemployment rate for women peaked even later. 5/
The policy response to a recession can provide direct relief, moderate the decline in economic activity, and accelerate the recovery. 6/
Importantly, our focus in providing this relief should be on well-being or living standards, not economic activity itself. Public policies can increase living standards even as they reduce economic activity. These types of policies are highly desirable! 7/
The coronavirus recession shares many similarities with previous recessions but is also different in some key ways. First, this recession occurred with unprecedented speed due to the sudden emergence and spread of the novel coronavirus. 8/
Second, the virus has made economic activity more dangerous. Third, because the recession was caused by a virus, the decline in economic activity has occurred alongside an increase in morbidity and mortality. 9/
Nobody knows for sure how long the coronavirus recession will last or exactly how severe it will be. The uncertainty that would exist when confronting any recession is compounded by the uncertainty about the nature and consequences of the coronavirus itself. 10/
Automatic stabilizers support household incomes and spending during recessions. Crucially, they also continue as long as they are needed. If the recession is deeper and longer, then the response grows. If the recovery is quicker, then the response shrinks. 11/
Also available in convenient summary version: Why cost-benefit analysis of tax regulations has failed, and how to fix it 2/ equitablegrowth.org/why-cost-benef…
In April 2018, while the Treasury and the IRS were developing regulations to implement the TCJA, the Trump administration sharply expanded a requirement for cost-benefit analysis of tax regulations 3/
This paper formalizes fixed-quantities distribution analysis as the primary ingredient in the welfare (and cost-benefit) analysis of tax changes. The fixed-quantities change in tax is the change in tax ignoring changes in quantities but including changes in prices. 2/
Growth, which is a change in quantities, should generally be ignored in the welfare analysis. However, it does matter for estimating fiscal effects. 3/
The income tax does a poor job of taxing the income from wealth. Investment gains are taxed only when assets are sold. Gains on assets that are never sold during a taxpayer’s lifetime are wiped out for income tax purposes at death. 2/
The opportunity to choose when and even whether to pay tax on investment gains leads to widespread tax avoidance. Moreover, even when gains are taxed, they are taxed at preferential rates. 3/
Ok, pausing my twitter hiatus because @RichardRubinDC is posing questions that are at the very center of my work: if TCJA yielded a modest boost in the capital stock would that be enough to make it worth it? 1/
This is a (partially) answerable question but you must acknowledge that the purpose of tax cuts is to cut taxes, something our economic policy discourse largely refuses to do so. (I have thoughts on why, but we’ll save those for another time.) 2/
The tax system is a means of effectuating transfers from the public to the government. Tax increases impose burden on people to raise revenues. Tax cuts reduce burden at the expense of revenues. 3/
Tax economists will spend lots of time in the coming years studying TCJA’s impacts, but its policy merits depend far less on the precise results of these studies than on the basic fact that it was a regressive, trillion-dollar tax cut 2/
Was delivering tax cuts to the relatively well-off the best use of the $1–$2 trillion legislators devoted to the TCJA, or were there other more pressing needs? 3/