, 9 tweets, 5 min read
There was a vote in Russia last week, on making Putin president for life. Sadly, it passed.

BUT the govt made a mistake & put all data online😄 Naturally, ppl scraped & analyzed it, as "lib" in @matplotlib stands for Liberty!!

csv:
github.com/khakhalin/Sket…

Above is the main plot (after Klimek 2012). As both turnout and support were faked, we see a corner-blob emerge from the natural blob in the middle. In RU case, it's also striated, as cheaters go for round percent values. Some by-region histograms below (see 85%, 90% & 95%) (2/7)
Some other interesting regions include Tatarstan (a semi-independent republic in Central Russia speaking a Turkic language: what's the deal with this super-blot in the middle?), and Chechnya (well, you know this one! :) (3/7)
Also note the difference between cities that had active anti-Putin opposition plant themselves at voting stations & document everything (Moscow), and cities where it didn't quite happen (St. Petersburg). Putin would have still won, but there's a huge difference! (4/7)
I also tried to find biggest cheaters by measuring the combness of histograms (compared the freq of %% slightly-above and slightly-below a whole % number), and the prevalence of "lucky" ballot counts that yield a round %. (H0: % were noisified with σ=0.005, n=50). It kinda works?
Not surprisingly, the higher Putin-support, the closer the %% are to a nice round %. (Or rather: the closer it is to the roundest % one can get by dividing two integers, for a given voter list. Say, for 1111 voters, you can't get exactly 95%, but you can 1055/1111=0.9496) (6/7)
Finally, another fun visual is plotting "Pro-Putin turnount" (YES votes / voter list length) against polling place size. Tiny polls are all pro-Putin (either coz they are fake, or coz pollers actually visited old people in their homes). But large poll places go bimodal! (7/7)
1) For Moscow ppl actually created a BROWSER (!!!), to see now their polling station compares to the rest! Wow data activism!
maxkatz.ru/2020/

2) The turnout historams are already turned into nerdy oppositionary merchendise :)
That's all. The citation for the main plot:
pnas.org/content/pnas/e…

All analyses notebooks:
github.com/khakhalin/Sket…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Arseny Khakhalin

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!