JohannesBorgen Profile picture
Jul 7, 2020 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Deutsche Bank signed a consent order with the NY Department of Financial Services, agreeing to pay a 150m$ fine, and, as you'd expect, it's a fascinating read. It deals with #Epstein, #Cypriot bank #FBME and #Danske Bank's AML issues in Estonia. A few snippets.
First, Epstein. It's a disgusting read, tbh, where 1 can imagine what's going on behind the scenes (all after Epstein came out of jail.) "Tuition fees" paid to young (adult) women, 800k$ of cash withdrawn, lawyers asking how to withdraw cash wo creating alerts, etc.
trusts being created to continue paying Epstein's co-conspirators from his previous convictions (yes, it does read like a Breaking Bad episode) - wtf was is still paying them, that's what I'd like to know.
But at the end of the day, the NY DFS doesn't have much against DB. As they say, they don't know -and neither did DB- if any of this was criminal and DB has to pay mostly because of procedural errors - sloppiness in risk assessment, minutes of meetings, transmission of info etc.
So I'll just ask one question: is DB has to pay 150m (partly) because of how sloppy it was in monitoring Epstein's dubious lifestyle, what about law enforcement agencies? Is DB really supposed to do their job? Are they not more responsible?
FBME, now. That's a simpler situation: a dubious bank in Cyprus, incorporated in the Caymans and then moving to Tanzania when USA Patriot Act imposed constraints on banking in the Caymans (I mean, how can anything be more dodgy than that!!!)
DB continued its business with FBME - for the life of me I can't understand why, I even doubt it was that profitable, because of the size - wait, scrap that : that minuscule bank cleared 618nb$ with DB !! 😳
But DB has one excuse, and it's a very embarrassing one - not for them. In 2005, the *Central Bank of Cyprus* (for real) represented to DB that it regarded FBMC as excellent from a KYC and AML perspective. This is really quite the revelation - and I would love to know who said it
That was one big reason DB kept FBME as a client. A few years later, FBME was named a financial institution of primary money laundering concern, and all hell broke lose, obviously.
Then we have Danske Bank. This was discussed many times in the press, and it's all well known by now. But the order does reveals a few interesting things.

The shocker, for me, was this : in 2010, Danske Bank Estonia's AML risk was rated 10 by DB, the MAXIMUM.
10 years ago, DB was totally aware that the situation in Estonia was out of control. 8 years later the CEO of Danske was telling me with a big smile on his face that everything was going smoothly in Estonia and AML/KYC process was top notch. WTF! This is going to end badly
And if DB was aware, I'm pretty the whole situation was a secret to no one. DB isn't exactly tight lip about everything, simply because they have so much turnover in staff.
Unless the US is unable to actually hit Danske for jurisdiction issues (see here for example spglobal.com/marketintellig…) what I'm reading in the order of DB (just the correspondent bank) does not smell good at all.
A final word: 150m is the combined sanction for the three cases - no split is given so it's impossible to say how much they paid for each case
really typing too quickly : FMBE, not FBMC of course

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More from @jeuasommenulle

Feb 20
Interesting note this morning from DB about ECB policy review and money market rates. Let me summarize it.

ECB has de facto moved from a corridor system to a floor system with unlimited MRO + QE.

But as QE etc unwind, there’s a big risk lurking. A thread
For those unfamiliar with the jargon, a corridor means that the market rate (EONIA) is stuck between two policy rates, the deposit facility rate (DLF) and the marginal lending rate (MLF.)

That’s what it looked like before 2008 & the GFC.

(Market rate is yellow) Image
After all hell broke loose in '08, the ECB flooded the market with money and this is what it looked like: market rates were stuck at ECB deposit rates because there was too much money in the system and it had to be deposited back at the ECB (ECB money is just doing round trips). Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24, 2023
My 2 favorite docs are the Jap & Ger financial stability reports because they give a glimpse at the horror of small unlisted banks😁(don’t sue me, I’m just kidding).

What did we get from the new German one ?

Buckle up, as they say in 10,000$ a year doomsday newsletters.
You won’t believe it: CRE is in trouble – but tbh office is surprisingly resilient so far. Image
Ok, CRE is fun, but have you tried interest rates risk and bn of securities unrealized losses in the balances sheet?

Realised is 25.8bn so total is around 70bn€. Tbh this is also not that much compared to the US shitshow. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 20, 2023
With all the macro debates going on around rates, recession, CRE, etc, banks’ loan losses are obv key. They are what makes the diff between recession & depression imo

That’s why the EBA report on banks’ provisioning practices is key – Here are my main takeaways.
1) Stage 2 loans (i.e. deteriorating loans for which lifetime expected credit losses = ECL should be booked) are a total mess. There's no consistency in methodologies. Here are the main problems
Collective assessments are still lacking (but are compulsory under IFRS9) Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 9, 2023
A few comments on the Metro Bank situation & capital rausing plan announced yesterday evening.

I'll start with a quick recap and then what I think it means for Metro and (more importantly) for the sector.
The deal has four components:
- Haircut of 40% on Tier 2 debt + extension of the 60% left, but voluntary, not bail-in
- Extension of MREL debt to 2029 (+4y) and new MREL issuance at 12%
- 150m new equity at 30p (IPO was at 2190p…)
- Planned asset sale of 3bn of resi mortgages
Now, what I think is important:

1. last minute rescue plan of MREL bondholders, shareholders are wiped out and T2 debt gets a mixed deal but the bonds were trading at 30%.

2. We might get retail s/h litigation / misselling claims
Read 14 tweets
Oct 6, 2023
IFRS & bank regs are almost killing bank M&A - something the Brits might regret in the next few days 😉 & the SSM might consider unintended consequence !

Here's why.
Let's take a simple bank with loans & deposits. Regulations (IRRBB) and common sense mean they can't massive interest rate riskj, so on top you add some rates derivatives to hedge.
Floating loans have an easy IR profile, mortgages are more complicated profile (fixed rate, prepayment risk). Deposits are much more complicated: sight deposits are not really floating not really fixed, so the hedging is complicated and requires modelling.

Back to M&A now
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
The ECB just published an economic bulletin on banks’ distributions, and I’m still puzzled as to why the ECB is so obsessed with this and constantly fight payouts.

So a thread about bank dividends !
My commonsense view here is that the EA banking sector is trading at unhealthy P/B ratios & it’s both in the banks’ and supervisors’ interests to see them go up.

But it looks like the ECB disagrees. Image
Again, commonsense view is that the best protection against financial distress is to be able to raise capital when you need it... and you’re only able to do that if you have an equity story to sell to investors.

If you can’t even distribute your earnings, it’s a tough sell.
Read 14 tweets

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