JohannesBorgen Profile picture
Jul 7, 2020 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Deutsche Bank signed a consent order with the NY Department of Financial Services, agreeing to pay a 150m$ fine, and, as you'd expect, it's a fascinating read. It deals with #Epstein, #Cypriot bank #FBME and #Danske Bank's AML issues in Estonia. A few snippets.
First, Epstein. It's a disgusting read, tbh, where 1 can imagine what's going on behind the scenes (all after Epstein came out of jail.) "Tuition fees" paid to young (adult) women, 800k$ of cash withdrawn, lawyers asking how to withdraw cash wo creating alerts, etc.
trusts being created to continue paying Epstein's co-conspirators from his previous convictions (yes, it does read like a Breaking Bad episode) - wtf was is still paying them, that's what I'd like to know.
But at the end of the day, the NY DFS doesn't have much against DB. As they say, they don't know -and neither did DB- if any of this was criminal and DB has to pay mostly because of procedural errors - sloppiness in risk assessment, minutes of meetings, transmission of info etc.
So I'll just ask one question: is DB has to pay 150m (partly) because of how sloppy it was in monitoring Epstein's dubious lifestyle, what about law enforcement agencies? Is DB really supposed to do their job? Are they not more responsible?
FBME, now. That's a simpler situation: a dubious bank in Cyprus, incorporated in the Caymans and then moving to Tanzania when USA Patriot Act imposed constraints on banking in the Caymans (I mean, how can anything be more dodgy than that!!!)
DB continued its business with FBME - for the life of me I can't understand why, I even doubt it was that profitable, because of the size - wait, scrap that : that minuscule bank cleared 618nb$ with DB !! 😳
But DB has one excuse, and it's a very embarrassing one - not for them. In 2005, the *Central Bank of Cyprus* (for real) represented to DB that it regarded FBMC as excellent from a KYC and AML perspective. This is really quite the revelation - and I would love to know who said it
That was one big reason DB kept FBME as a client. A few years later, FBME was named a financial institution of primary money laundering concern, and all hell broke lose, obviously.
Then we have Danske Bank. This was discussed many times in the press, and it's all well known by now. But the order does reveals a few interesting things.

The shocker, for me, was this : in 2010, Danske Bank Estonia's AML risk was rated 10 by DB, the MAXIMUM.
10 years ago, DB was totally aware that the situation in Estonia was out of control. 8 years later the CEO of Danske was telling me with a big smile on his face that everything was going smoothly in Estonia and AML/KYC process was top notch. WTF! This is going to end badly
And if DB was aware, I'm pretty the whole situation was a secret to no one. DB isn't exactly tight lip about everything, simply because they have so much turnover in staff.
Unless the US is unable to actually hit Danske for jurisdiction issues (see here for example spglobal.com/marketintellig…) what I'm reading in the order of DB (just the correspondent bank) does not smell good at all.
A final word: 150m is the combined sanction for the three cases - no split is given so it's impossible to say how much they paid for each case
really typing too quickly : FMBE, not FBMC of course

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More from @jeuasommenulle

Jul 22
What's going to be the costs of the Crowdstrike outage for the insurance industry? Impossible to know precisely but Mediobanca has a nice breakdown explaining why it won't be massive.

There are 3 areas of losses:

- cancelled flights
- Business interruption
- Cyber policies

1/n
Cancelled flights: reports are approx 5000 flights cancelled per day, still ongoing (backlog). That's big but 2010 Icelandic volcano had 100k cancelations ut MunRe explained the insured losses were low
munichre.com/en/company/med…
BI for a week is not big. For example Swiss Re paid 1.5bn for the entire Covid lockdown. This is not even remotely the same
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There is obviously no party capable of governing, But the two most important figures for me are approx

- RN + LFI = 214, 256 if we add EELV and PCF
- LR + PS + ENS = 131+162=293
In practice, this means that there is no “immediate” majority for votes of no confidence LFI + RN and that it will take the vote of one bit of the three “moderates” to pass one. The governement will not be that unstable.

There are also important rules to keep in mind:
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Jun 26
Incredible story with finance and greed at its best. A thread.

Please consider that every tweet starts with "allegedly" because these people enjoy litigation, and I don’t want to get sued.

ft.com/content/60d454…
It all started with the Morgan Stanley block trade (disgraceful) settlement with the DOJ, see below.

.

Buried in the docs, were the mentions of hedge funds on the other side of the trades that help Passi scam his clients.
Allegedly one of those hedge funds was called Segantii.

Maybe you’ve heard of them: they’re shutting down and returning all investor money after Hong Kong authorities announced a criminal insider trading probe against them for trading ahead of a …. block trade! Surprise!
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Jun 11
If you're following French politics, you'll probably hear about a weird theory soon, as it's likely to go mainstream: Macron could resign, call for new presidential elections and run again, effectively bypassing the 2-term limit.

Is it credible? I don't think so and here's why.
The Constitution bans more than two consecutive terms.

Everyone pretty straightforwardly understands this as "Macron can't run again in 2027" (but could pull a Putin & come back in 2032.)
However the exact wording mentions "mandats consécutifs" which, some suggest, implies that if someone is a temporary president after Macron resigns (even for a few weeks) then a 3rd Macron term wouldn't be "consecutive." Image
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Jun 10
By now you've probably read 10 times that Macron called parliamentary elections to put RN/Le Pen in power & wait for them to mess up so much that Macron's heir will win in 2027.

I think that's a possible scenario but not his goal at all. It misses Macron's real target.

Thread.
Many reasons why it's probably not his goal.

1.- The main negative for Le Pen is that she (&her father) have always been seen as incapable of governing. They’re a protest party, nothing more. Break that taboo and you could actually help them.
2. A majority for Le Pen not certain. They've got 88 MPs, majority is 289. They scored 19% at last parliamentary elections vs 33% yesterday but were at 23% previous European elections. The two-round system makes the votes/ seats relationship highly non linear. Forecast is v hard.
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The headlines that grabbed attention yesterday was this: "ECB to Impose First-Ever Fines on Banks for Climate Failures."

But the climate and bank headline that was actually important is a totally different one.

An (important?) thread.
An “ECB” working paper (so in theory just academic work, but, errr.) published 2 days ago discussed capital buffers for climate risks. T

he basic idea makes sense: an increased pace in energy transition is good for the climate but could hurt the credit profile of some companies.
How is this assessed?
The ECB has built a macro model that’s mostly based on energy prices, spillovers & leverage / profitability that ultimately leads to probabilities of default. A neat model but tbh I’m always dubious – unfortunately macro models can’t even forecast 6mo infla
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