My analysis of Scott Brown was referenced on the latest @celticrumours podcast. I've largely avoided revisiting the topic since March, as I know it goes over like a wet fart with most supporters. However, @HarryBradyCU mentioned something on the pod which has "sucked me back in."
Warning- this is a long thread. While @lawrencedonegan brought up my analysis on Brown, it was the discussion pertaining to Lennon and Edouard which is the catalyst for this thread. Comments about Edouard's dejection after the horrific defeats at home to Cluj and Copenhagen....
and that Champions League qualification may be the key to his staying for the season ignited a new "panic" in my anti-complacency focus as Celtic drive towards 10iar. The idea that three 1-off knockout games starting in August may be a huge factor in 10iar is quite scary.
Knockout games introduce far more luck into outcomes, where the cost of errors in judgment and/or play can be amplified massively- like we saw with Lennon's lineups in those two games, Brown's handball vs Cluj, and Jozo's mistake against Copenhagen.
Brown's overall output stats in 2019-2020 were actually comparable to 2018/2019, which had shown general decline. Volumes have been in decline since 2015/2016 (duels and dribbles down) while quality and efficiency increased under Rodgers, with 2017/2018 POTY probably the apex. 
Seems it took a full season and preseason for Rodgers to fully shift Brown's role, as 2016/2017 was a bit of a hybrid. 2017/2018 had Brown in that role of sitting central in front of the back 4 and keeping passes moving. Lennon seems to have taken Brown back in time...
to the last season under Deila- particularly pre-winter break when Brown was next to McGregor in the 4-2-3-1. Most noticeably, his pressing into the opponents' half was more aggressive as shown in this stat- % of Recoveries. Rodgers had him in more of a "mop up" role.
The problem with this is that Brown is now measurably slower and less agile than when Deila had him pressing more aggressively. His duels per 90 are down 23% and dribbles down 72% in overall stats. It appears that Rodgers narrowed Brown's role in alignment with a slowing player.
Between Lennon giving Brown more freedom and the 5% reduction in possession by Celtic with Lennon's more direct style of play, Brown's raw stats understate his actual physical decline, IMO. Now back to Edouard and the importance of CL qualification.
It is in Europe where Brown's physical decline is most problematic. Here we see his stats over the same 3 seasons but limited to only games in Europe- the decline is significant. For example, defensive duels are down 27% in volume while overall duels down 31%.
In addition, his win % was down to basically a coin flip in duels after having been a dominant force for so many years. Despite this physical decline, Lennon asked Brown to press even more aggressively in Europe than in games overall- nearly half of recoveries in opponents' half.
We witnessed a player (Zeca) for Copenhagen who has (now 31) performed this season in Europe at a level which echoed what Brown used to offer- elite volume AND efficiency. So where does that leave the current version of Brown? You are going to HATE this...
His output in Europe in 2019/2020 was largely similar to Ryan Jack. I haven't shared attacking stats because that was never Brown's strength and it has only gotten worse. None of this should be taken as me "crapping on Brown"- I love him, but....
I believe Lennon persisting with Brown in the same usage and role as last season would be a really bad idea- particularly in Europe given the stakes financially and relative to Edouard and risks to 10iar. My "prescription" is to steal a baseball idea- make Brown a lockdown closer
Dominant closers in baseball can intimidate teams into mentally giving up at times when they enter towards the end of games. I think Brown could be very effective in being a "super sub" and coming on the last 15-20 minutes of close games to lead the team, while also being...
fresh physically against tiring opponents. While a different kind of player, Liverpool have used an aging Milner in a super sub role with good success. I want to see Brown lead us to CL and lift the 10iar trophy-but the status quo increases risks predictably & unnecessarily. End
