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More reliable high frequency data on our economy is automobile, two wheeler and commercial vehicle sales. We can compare sales of a month to same month year to measure growth.
This is trend we have.
November 2019 compared to November 2018
2 wheelers down 14%
4 wheelers down 7%
December 2019 compared to December 2018
Two wheelers down 16%
Four wheelers down .1%
January 2020 compared to January 2019
Two wheelers down 16%
Four wheelers down 6%
February 2020 compared to February 2019
Two wheelers down 19%
Four wheelers down 7%
March 2020 compared to March 2019
Two wheelers down 39%
Four wheelers down 51%
April 2020 cannot be compared to April 2019
Because April 2020 had zero sales because of lockdown
May 2020 compared to May 2019
Two wheeler sales down 88%
Four wheeler sales down 84%
June 2020 compared to June 2019
Two wheelers down 36%
Four wheelers down 53%
Remember this is after an April of zero sales and May of -80% sales. Are these green shoots?
Something damaged economy whose effects were already visible
last year. Lockdown only exacerbated things
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