A few further thoughts.
The reason the White House is suddenly flipping out about this is that they're realizing the die is already cast, and it will be very, very damaging politically.
The reason the White House is suddenly flipping out about this is that they're realizing the die is already cast, and it will be very, very damaging politically.
The evidence is pretty mixed on whether kids drive transmission. But episodes like this outbreak at a large summer camp underscore the risks. 82 cases found.
That kind of outbreak shut down the camp, and would shut down schools as well. ky3.com/content/news/S…
That kind of outbreak shut down the camp, and would shut down schools as well. ky3.com/content/news/S…
We could have been in a plausible position to reopen (most) schools this fall if we'd begun preparing several months ago. The country needed to do two big things:
1) Bring down overall levels of transmission
2) Plan, fund, and implement guidance on safe adaptation of schooling
1) Bring down overall levels of transmission
2) Plan, fund, and implement guidance on safe adaptation of schooling
But we did neither of those things.
Instead of prioritizing schools, the White House and many governors chose to focus on bars, salons, and other less essential businesses - reopening them while schools remained shuttered.
And they played culture war with masks.
Instead of prioritizing schools, the White House and many governors chose to focus on bars, salons, and other less essential businesses - reopening them while schools remained shuttered.
And they played culture war with masks.
By choosing to reopen before the virus was coming under control, these political choices made a resurgence all but inevitable.
And by presuming (with no evidence) that the worst was behind them, these politicians left themselves totally unprepared for a new spike.
And by presuming (with no evidence) that the worst was behind them, these politicians left themselves totally unprepared for a new spike.
That in turn meant no meaningful action on the other big priority: supporting and funding schools to adapt to safe operations.
To have any chance, this would have had to start months ago. Instead, the White House and CDC are still - in mid-July!! - fighting over the guidance.
To have any chance, this would have had to start months ago. Instead, the White House and CDC are still - in mid-July!! - fighting over the guidance.
At this point, it's far too late.
Schools would normally start in 6-7 weeks. Which means they need to make their decisions within the next 2-3 weeks.
And the state of the US outbreak response in 2-3 weeks is going to be....rough.
Schools would normally start in 6-7 weeks. Which means they need to make their decisions within the next 2-3 weeks.
And the state of the US outbreak response in 2-3 weeks is going to be....rough.
The case numbers we're seeing today are an echo of transmission that occurred 2-3 weeks ago (time from exposure to infection to symptoms to testing, plus ~1wk delay in test results).
Even if these states fully locked down tomorrow, it would take weeks to see impact.
Even if these states fully locked down tomorrow, it would take weeks to see impact.
I'm not optimistic that the country will be in a better place in 2-3 wks when schools have to decide what to do.
Pretty good odds, in fact, that we'll be in a considerably worse place, as Dr. Fauci has said. statnews.com/2020/06/30/u-s…
Pretty good odds, in fact, that we'll be in a considerably worse place, as Dr. Fauci has said. statnews.com/2020/06/30/u-s…
Meanwhile it's hard to expect much progress on the kind of physical and policy adaptations needed to make schools plausibly safe...in the next 6 weeks.
Asked about this today, @VP had nothing. "We stand ready to help states" is a punt, not leadership.
Asked about this today, @VP had nothing. "We stand ready to help states" is a punt, not leadership.
As @ProfEmilyOster told NPR today, the kind of safety adaptations being floated are all pretty burdensome and would require major infusions of staff and cash that schools just...don't...have.
npr.org/2020/07/08/889…
npr.org/2020/07/08/889…
The time for a big push on school adaptation was back in May/June, when schools could have spent their entire summer breaks putting new measures into place, spending new infusions of funding, and hiring additional staff. The window to do something really ambitious has now closed.
So as a practical matter, the decision schools face in early August is whether to reopen 1) amidst higher case numbers than when they suspended last spring; and 2) with little clear guidance, support, or funding to do so safely.
That's pretty grim.
That's pretty grim.
And the White House knows it's grim. No doubt they're fearful of heading into election season with student still out of school. So they're scrambling.
It's consistent with how they have managed this crisis from day 1: reactively, not proactively.
It's consistent with how they have managed this crisis from day 1: reactively, not proactively.
At every major juncture, this White House has bet its chips on unrealistically rosy scenarios, failed to plan for anything else, and found itself flailing when reality intervened.
As I've been saying for months now, LACK OF PREPAREDNESS IS A CHOICE.
As I've been saying for months now, LACK OF PREPAREDNESS IS A CHOICE.
This lack of leadership, lack of vision, lack of planning has left us playing catch-up for nearly six months now. The White House never wakes up to a problem until it is too late. True with testing, true with PPE, true with ICU readiness, true now with schools.
Closing schools is terrible for kids. But pressuring schools to reopen before they can do so safely is not better.
The focus MUST be on establishing the conditions for a SAFE return to school. And that must start ASAP, lest we lose the whole coming school year.
The focus MUST be on establishing the conditions for a SAFE return to school. And that must start ASAP, lest we lose the whole coming school year.
