Thread by @mjs_DC

😄The Supreme Court's final opinion(s) will come down today at 10 am!😭

Who's ready?!

What's left?

•Mazars: House subpoenas of Trump's financial records
•Vance: NY grand jury subpoena of Trump's tax returns
•McGirt: Is a huge chunk of Oklahoma actually tribal land?

If any justice intends to retire, the court will probably announce it today, after opinions. (I do not think any will, but it's always possible!)

Thanks to everybody who hung out with me on Twitter for this term's SCOTUS mornings. I've been doing this for a decade but it's much more fun to share the stress (and excitement!) with you all in real time.

First opinion: A 5–4 decision with Gorsuch joining the liberals to hold that a huge chunk of Oklahoma remains Indian territory (a reservation) for the purposes of a federal criminal law. supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

This decision is no surprise. Gorsuch, the Supreme Court's only Westerner, is VERY good on tribal rights. slate.com/news-and-polit…

The persistent theme of Gorsuch's Indian jurisprudence is (1) empathy for tribes screwed over by the government, and (2) an insistence on holding the government to its treaties and (broken) promises. Here's the beginning and ending of his opinion today. supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

Gorsuch writes Indian cases the way Kennedy wrote about gay rights and RBG writes about reproductive rights. Gorsuch and Sotomayor are the staunchest defenders of tribal rights the Supreme Court has ever seen.

🚨SUPREME COURT ALLOWS A NEW YORK GRAND JURY TO SUBPOENA TRUMP'S TAX RETURNS BY A 7–2 VOTE supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

The details:

This decision is complicated. It won't be an *immediate* victory. SCOTUS sent the case back down to the district court, where it can hear more of Trump's objections.

But SCOTUS rejected Trump's main arguments. The writing is on the wall.

supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

The decision breaks down 5–2–2. Roberts writes for himself and the liberals, holding that the subpoena can be enforced so long as it does not interfere with Trump's constitutional duties. (It doesn't.) This is the majority opinion, and it's what matters. It's a huge win.

Kavanaugh, joined by Gorsuch, concur in the judgment: They reject Trump's absolute immunity from the subpoena, but seem to think he might raise other, meritorious arguments on remand.

But Roberts' opinion has five votes, and it basically leaves Trump no wiggle room.

🚨In the congressional subpoena cases, by a 7–2 vote, the Supreme Court rules that Congress DOES have the power to subpoena Trump's financial records—but sends the cases down for the lower courts to more carefully assess "separation of powers concerns." supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

SCOTUS affirms Congress' power to subpoena the president's financial records, but says courts must "take adequate account of the separation of powers principles at stake, including both the significant legislative interests of Congress and the unique position of the President."

The Mazars decision is a punt, and the House should be disappointed. SCOTUS has ordered further proceedings in the lower courts that will take some time. If Biden wins in November, the House may never get its hands on Trump's financial records. supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf…

John Roberts has punted masterfully. A New York grand jury will see Trump's tax returns, but the information will likely remain secret to the outside world. The House *might* get Trump's financial records eventually, but will remain mired in the lower courts for months.

Roberts' compromises mean the American people probably won't see Trump's tax returns or financial records before November, if ever. But they also deny the president the sweeping immunity from grand jury and congressional subpoenas that he sought.

Roberts pulled off a balancing act in Trump's subpoena cases, clearing the way for a New York grand jury to get the president's tax returns while stymying Congress' effort to obtain his financial records—without placing Trump above the law. Here's how. slate.com/news-and-polit…

RBG seems fond of Gorsuch. She has assigned him the opinion in three 5–4 decisions in which he joined the liberals, including McGirt today. If it's true that Roberts initially dissented from Bostock, as many suspect, then RBG assigned him that opinion, as well.

The most interesting justices right now, in terms of unpredictability, are Roberts, Kagan, and Gorsuch. Keep your eye on this trio. We're moving away from the One Swing Vote dynamic toward a more complicated series of shifting alliances and centers of power on the court.

News: Next term SCOTUS will hear a challenge to the independence of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which was created during the recession to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In light of the CFPB decision, SCOTUS will likely end its independence. supremecourt.gov/orders/courtor…

Roberts is that rarest of creatures: A judge who understands politics. He played the term perfectly once again. slate.com/news-and-polit… @Slate